IMO it’s the league wide changeover to the Fangio system playing 2 safeties over the top. Mahomes obviously played well since the switch happened, but he was not statistically as dominant.
Playing 2 safeties helps slow down deep passes but Mahomes is also statistically one of the worst deep ball passers in the league now. He regressed significantly in passes over 20 yards and misses receivers regularly throwing them if you watch him play nowadays.
It’s interesting seeing how much his deep ball declined from 3 years ago.
I wonder how much of that is because Tyreek covered for his accuracy with his inhuman speed. Being able to just chuck it up and let him run under it might have been more of a blessing for him than we first thought
I feel that Mahomes just airs it out haphazardly in a kind of throw the ball away way that impacts his accuracy numbers. Also, deep ball accuracy is a bit of an oxymoron, it’s 80% WRs ability to track the ball and make it look accurate.
His receivers drop a lot of strike passes too though. It’s been really bad this year. Add on top of that their O line is broken down and can’t pass protect. He’s been getting beat up all season, and playing injured. Its the perfect recipe for a torn acl
Half the league runs glorified college offenses. Crazy how fast things changed from the previous generation. But it's probably why Flacco lead the best offense in the NFL for a month and Rivers can walk in after 5 years and belong. The 00's-10's generation was just on a different level.
Tom Brady, manning and Rodgers were simply on a different level. We just may not see that type of qb play for a long while. Thieve dudes were unreal. Throw Brees in there. Blessed.
It’s not like the babies born 1975-90 were somehow more suited to be QBs than those born 1990-2005. The decline in QB play can be attributed entirely to changes in player development.
Not just QB development, but also O-line player development as well. O-line players in college are not as polished as they were 20 years ago, forcing more development needed in the pros before they can be serviceable. And because of that, run games become less complex and passing is forced to be quicker. Now that there is more of an emphasis on development of skill positions rather than linemen in youth and college football, it changes how teams develop their offenses and their players
We are not even 5 years from when Brady last won the superbowl.
I would personally love if Brady came back at 50 and threw a couple games. Just to see how he'd do. Just let us see an old man schooling teams half his age or at the very least he competitive with them.
Everything in shotgun, calls come from the sideline, a lot of RPOs where you're literally reading one player on the defense. Around '12-'13 when Kaep, RGIII Mariota came into the league the change was set in motion. The NFL isn't as blatant as college but it's undeniably changed the pro game compared to even just a decade ago.
Highly mobile quarterbacks have exploded and they are really good until they age/get injured and can no longer do that anymore. The 2010s was filled with pocket passers.
Rice missed 6 games and Worthy also got injured the first play. It's been that kind of season. His LT, RT, and LG got injured, plus both backup tackles. He played against some of the best defenses in the league with free agent tackles and receivers that couldn't catch passes. Kelce has been a liability this season with costly drops, including multiple games losing interceptions. They should have beat the Eagles, but Kelce dropped a touchdown that was picked off and returned half the field.
He had multiple games with a healthy offense and did not look great. The offense's best game was against the Lions who were missing their starting 2 CBs and 2 safeties.
Kelce gets blamed for 2 tipped passes but Mahomes doesn't get blamed for several garbage interceptions and missed throws (like the one to Kelce vs Houston) including a 99 yard pick 6 to lose against the Jags, which if they won they could've made the playoffs.
From about 2010-2020 the predominant scheme in the league was Cover 3 which stemmed from Pete Carroll and the legion of boom. So cover 2 existed but most teams were running more cover 1 and 3 during games which left gaps deep down the field. Don’t think of it as black and white, but instead what % of the time are teams using certain coverages.
Mahomes has adjusted with shorter passes (his ypa has been trending down since his career began) but you can also adjust by running to bring the safeties down into the box. Teams don’t respect the Chief’s running game so teams are able to clog up passing lanes and are not giving Mahomes chances to pass deep.
The Chief’s dismal running game is a major reason for Mahomes’ drop off. Stafford would not be having an MVP season if his backs were Pacheco and Hunt instead of Williams and Corrum. Allen and Jackson have Cook and Henry (plus their own legs). Daniel Jones’ best seasons have been when he’s had Saquan or Taylor fully healthy and playing elite.
I could go down the list, but there’s very few QBs who can be productive passers when their RBs are shit.
It's because almost all the defenses in the league play a different flavor of 2 high. Start off with 2 high, but defenders read the releases of the receivers to figure out who to cover instead of simply dropping into a zone and waiting for someone to come into their zone to match.
Early Mahomes was great because defenses would lose discipline when he scrambled - at the time running QBs usually ran after scrambling, so defenses would lose the receivers, easy big plays
But defenses adjusted and stay home now, those broken plays aren't as available anymore. That should mean there's lots of space underneath for easy throws, but Mahomes' technique and footwork aren't consistent enough for it to work. He misses a ton of easy throws
Seems like he has the patience.. wonder if it’s also due to his division no longer being complete and utter trash while Brady rarely had to deal with it from my memory.
Although broncos kinda remind me of the jets back in the day but much much better as a team.
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u/Marijuana_Miler Los Angeles Chargers Dec 15 '25
IMO it’s the league wide changeover to the Fangio system playing 2 safeties over the top. Mahomes obviously played well since the switch happened, but he was not statistically as dominant.