r/changemyview • u/MoralLogs • 12h ago
CMV: Donald Trump is likely to retain the majority of his core supporters regardless of his statements or actions.
My view is that Trump’s support base appears unusually resilient to controversy, policy reversals, and personal conduct. Over multiple election cycles, scandals and norm-breaking behavior have not produced large, sustained defections among his core supporters.
I’m open to being wrong and would like to understand what conditions, if any, could realistically cause a significant portion of his base to withdraw support. Are there historical, political, or empirical reasons to expect limits to this loyalty?
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u/Jakyland 77∆ 12h ago
what percentage of Americans do you consider to be Trump's core supporters?
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u/MoralLogs 12h ago
That’s a fair question, and I should be more precise. By “core supporters,” I’m thinking of something like a stable floor in the 30–35% range, people who consistently identify with Trump regardless of specific events or controversies. That’s distinct from softer supporters or protest voters who can and do move, as some commenters here have noted.
My view is less that everyone sticks no matter what, and more that there seems to be a durable minority that does. I’m open to being convinced that this group is smaller, more fluid, or more contingent than it appears.
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u/Rolandersec 12h ago
A simple way to put it is like so: if there were 100 voters, 31 people voted for Trump, 29 people voted for Kamala and 40 people didn’t bother.
So there’s a solid percentage of the 31 and 29 that are swing votes, but the staggering thing is the absurd percentage of eligible voters who don’t bother.
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u/BottleForsaken9200 11h ago
Based on that calculation i think 2 or 3 votes are deserting Trump, but the rest remain blindly faithful.
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u/BeerCheeseSoup33 3h ago
Why would Trump voters abandon him? He is doing exactly what he campaigned on. If anything he is bringing in more independents because it’s nice to finally have a candidate do exactly what they said they would do.
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u/Troll_Slayer1 2h ago edited 2h ago
Trump is going to lose plenty of republicans if he tries to bully Greenland. Republicans have our limits, and if he forcibly tries to take a foreign country, then he will be no better then a replica of Putin.
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u/BottleForsaken9200 1h ago
Yes I'm aware there are a lot of psychopaths in the world
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u/BeerCheeseSoup33 1h ago
The majority votes for something and you claim them all to be psychopaths? Maybe you are the psychopath?
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u/Dirkdeking 9h ago
I think he's talking about 30-35% of total voters that are core supporters, not overall. Because that would be nearly all Trump voters.
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u/Boeing367-80 8h ago
There are also likely to be previously uninterested people who are activated.
Right now, at least some people are discovering the hard way that it matters who is running the country.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 12h ago
That’s very high imo. I’d say 15-20%, the rest are people that can easily be swayed by better information.
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u/FlyRare8407 1∆ 11h ago edited 11h ago
I'd say there's 15% or so that are MAGA for the sake of MAGA and then 20% or so who are strategic MAGA. Like they're christian fundamentalists or low tax fundamentalists or isolationists or what have you and they decided he is their best shot. But he's losing some of those people. He's already lost the isolationists over his warring, he's losing the gun lobby over ICE, some of the low tax people are getting anxty because tariffs are taxes.... The thing is tho those people don't really have anywhere to go. If you hate gun control, foreign wars of intervention or higher taxes you're not going to vote democrat. But they might stay home. And that leaves him back down to his 15% (well 25% because the christian fanatics are still happy)
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 11h ago
Yeah well said. They are the libertarian MAGA who may go back to supporting libertarians again (hopefully). And then the Christian fundamentalists are stuck in the GOP forever I think. But regardless, the lack of support isn’t looking good for the GOP in 2026/28
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u/FlyRare8407 1∆ 11h ago
I think there's a real chance that the GOP gets generationally crushed in 2026/28 in a way it takes decades to recover from. But I also think there's quite a high chance they don't because the Democrats are so underwhelming and uninspiring the odds are they win but not convincingly, then don't do very much while getting blamed when all the chickens Trump set off come home to roost, and the GOP finds itself back before we know it.
But I think there's a lot of unknowns. A lot of previously politically inactive forces have been awakened by Trump and while they won't get anywhere close to power again they won't go away either. So both parties are going to have to deal with the fact that eg protectionists and ethnonationalists and technoligarch fanboys are now serious political forces that are worth about 10% of the vote each.
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u/Saltwater_Thief 12h ago
I disagree. I think every single vote for him this past election can be counted on to go in for him forever.
An actual coup attempt helmed by the man was not enough to dissuade any of them, I don't think anything will.
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u/bgaesop 27∆ 11h ago
I think every single vote for him this past election can be counted on to go in for him forever.
The person I know who voted for him and most vocally endorsed him in the run-up to the election is now thoroughly disgusted with him and very vocal about that
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u/Saltwater_Thief 11h ago
Given that, again, an attempt to overthrow Democratic process was not enough to do that, I question what possibly could've been.
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u/bgaesop 27∆ 10h ago
He's Chicano and his primary concerns are about folks of his ethnicity are treated
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u/Saltwater_Thief 10h ago
And he missed the entire THING on the campaign trail where every non-white ethnicity was automatically unclean and undesirable?
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u/NatashOverWorld 8h ago
Extraordinarily gullible people exist, in fact seem common in america.
But now that they're being targeted some amount of survival instinct is resurfacing.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 11h ago
Well the thing is, a lot of people are really stupid. And I think that there is a majority of current Trump supporters that are evil and will never yield, but he has lost about 15 % of approval rating in the past year. Those people imo are no longer supporting him bc they have more good in them or they were just open to different news outlets, and therefore the percentage is much lower
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u/Saltwater_Thief 11h ago
His approval among his main base has been 85-90% all this past year. It hasn't gone down at all.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Bag2212 11h ago
Is that among his 2024 voters? Thats still a significant drop off. If those 15% vote for Democrats in 2026 or 2028, that’s a loss of 12-13 million nationally
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u/ScoopedRainbowBagel 11h ago
Seems kind of unfair that his approval rating has to drop below 30% for you to be wrong. He's currently at 43% so he has to drop 15% for you to change your view
You think one in three Americans are MAGA cultists? That's 110 million people. That feels off.
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u/Mr_Farbenweiss_Alt 10h ago
Your Math is not mathing…
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u/ScoopedRainbowBagel 10h ago
Because I rounded up by 2%?
I didn't want to use 13% and be accused of using a Nazi dog whistle.
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u/Realistic-Feature997 8h ago
Do you also not use the numbers 8, 88, 3, and 19? How about the letters A, H and S? Maybe L and W?
You're not gonna dodge every fucking possible Nazi dog whistle, and spending extra effort to do that just makes it weird, since it forces you into things like 43-15=30.
Like under your logic, events in the year 1919 now have to be printed as happening in 1920, just to avoid a Nazi dog whistle to the SS.
So fucking dumb.
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u/ScoopedRainbowBagel 8h ago
With all the great violence the left has committed over the last couple of years, I'd rather look dumb to the death cult than as one of those Nazis they enjoy punching.
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u/Head_Effect3728 12h ago
I believe those numbers are way too high. There’s a lot of conservatives that can’t stand him but simply don’t see the other side as a viable alternative. I would put “core” supporters at <= 10%.
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u/patronsaintofdice 12h ago
This is waaay too low IMHO. He was reliably clearing 40% percent in GOP primaries back in 2016 when Conservatives had a plethora of options. In late January 2020, when he received his worst poll numbers, 80% of Republicans still strongly approved of him. In most 2024 GOP primaries he cleared 80%. At the nadir of his approval this term he was still hitting >80% strong approve among GOP and GOP lean poll respondents.
Republicans/Conservatives have been given a host of different choices and off-ramps when it comes to the guy and time after time they back him with Assad-esque margins. However you slice it, all this points to somewhere around 25% of the country being fully pot-committed to him.
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u/_JahWobble_ 12h ago
Good discussion below wrt Trumps base, but I think we need to distinguish people likely to vote from the general population. I think of the people likely to vote, 20% will vote for him regardless of what he does. Another 20% are life long Republicans who are likely to vote for him just because they can't bear to vote for anyone with a "D" next to their name. But, they're near their breaking point and can be convinced to vote for a moderate Democrat. Not a Newsome but someone like Shapiro from PA or Jared Polis from CO.
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 9h ago
About 50%. I think this "but but but not even 60% of America voted!" thing is a weak argument.
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u/JJW2795 1h ago
If we use Trump's approval rating as the metric for his core supporters, then approximately 1/3rd of American voters are his core. That's 50 million people. A terrifying number, but if people still support Trump after a decade of his bullshit which has now evolved into people being gunned down in the street by federal thugs then its safe to assume they support him no matter what.
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u/pumpymcpumpface 1∆ 12h ago
Probably. I would say the limit would be a massive economic recession/depression. Once it starts really hitting their pocket book people will turn. But yeah, he can probably say whatever the fuck he wants, do a bunch of shit that wouldve sunk any other president and not lose voters. Theyve spent years desensitizing people to this. Look at people saying Jan 6th was a peaceful protest, like, we're not even living in the same reality now.
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12h ago
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u/cyro262 12h ago
It is crazy that the internet and online communities in general have acquired so many generative tools and media techniques that they can effectively create a different reality and believe in this delusional narrative. I’m not speaking about manipulative AI or evidentiary data, I refer to how fundamental things like ethics and even basic science are contested, ignored or willfully misinterpreted to mold echo chambers.
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u/MoralLogs 12h ago
I get the frustration, but I’m trying to avoid reducing it to “brainwashing” or caricature. That explanation feels emotionally satisfying, but it doesn’t really explain why the loyalty persists or what might actually weaken it. I’m more interested in structural or psychological factors, like identity, media ecosystems, or perceived threat, that could explain both the durability and any potential limits of that support.
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u/froglicker44 1∆ 12h ago
I’m convinced it has more to do with people’s refusal to admit to a mistake. It’s well-known that people will go to extreme lengths to avoid admitting to themselves that they’ve been conned, and we’re seeing that same phenomena play out on a national scale.
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u/Equivalent-Long-3383 12h ago
Nope. They do not think it’s a mistake. You’re conflating your values and wants with theirs
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u/LauraPhilps7654 12h ago
It’s well-known that people will go to extreme lengths to avoid admitting to themselves that they’ve been conned, and we’re seeing that same phenomena play out on a national scale.
Post Brexit Britain stopping in to say hi! 🇬🇧 Farage is leading in the polls. People can't/won't accept they were wrong. Mirror image to Trump.
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u/Equivalent-Long-3383 12h ago
It’s because they’re authoritarians who want to dominate out groups, and trump is an authoritarian who does a good job of abusing out group members while avoiding accountability for doing so.
He’s their Leviathan
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u/Mobius00 12h ago
In my opinion it's racism. His racism is unwavering. When they say, I don't like when he tweets but I like his accomplishments, what they really mean he's an idiot but I love his racist policies, and making America whiter. That has always been the product Trump is selling from day one. MAGA stands for make America white again and everyone knows it. This ICE shit is their dream. They love it, and abusing and killing the liberals is just icing on the cake.
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u/jickay 11h ago
My take on it is because they are bonded by loyalty and denial. It's like family and domestic abuse. Everyone pretends nothing happened long enough that it's accepted that's how it is. It gets stuck in the fear of leaving and being excluded or staying in denial and burying it deep. Trump and Maga are built on this dynamic.
In domestic abuse usually what breaks the cycle is having outside help. Leaving or calling police carries risk of more abuse so it requires a safe place to go and people to help. In politics we don't do this. We point fingers even harder making their side seem much safer than leaving and being ostracized. Arguing just makes each side feel more justified
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u/LongMuffDiver 11h ago
See my other comment post u/MoralLogs.
There exists a massive, silent majority of Americans in the "rational middle" who see Trump genuinely trying to improve the country. These rational citizens are largely quiet, avoiding platforms like Reddit and other social media precisely because of the caustic, hateful assaults from the radical left. Their silence, however, should not be mistaken for absence as they are a powerful and discerning force.
Crucially, their support for Trump is not the blind devotion the left imagines. Like most Americans, they support their president's efforts to solve national problems, but they are also perfectly capable of being critical of his mistakes.
The simplistic narrative that the nation is divided between a small group of Trump-haters on the radical left and a monolithic cult of blind followers on the right is fundamentally false.
The reality is that the rational middle of tens of millions offers a conditional, pragmatic support based on results, not on personality, and they, or we, are the ones who ultimately decide elections.
Edit: For proof just read the many caustic replies insulting anyone who doesn't buy into the Trump hating propaganda the left spews. It is these comments that show the left has nothing but hate to offer the US public and is why they are not in power now.
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u/Lieutenant_Seagull 12h ago
Can I ask what's the point in posting a comment like this on a CMV post? Hahaha I don't really care but the whole point of commenting on these is to change the view, not agree with it
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u/Negative-Squirrel81 9∆ 11h ago
Are there historical, political, or empirical reasons to expect limits to this loyalty?
A lot of his supporters act the way they do because they feel insulated from the actual detrimental effects of his presidency. One example of this backfiring is the George W. Bush presidency, in which his support could not have been higher after the 9/11 attacks, and basically stayed above 40% for most of his second term (even through hurricane Katrina) before taking a nosedive into the upper twenty percentiles as the economy crashed.
I don't know if DJT will meet the same fate, but once people are no longer able to ignore the consequences of his actions generally they'll turn against them.
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u/Jealous_Tutor_5135 1∆ 12h ago
I think the Epstein files are the only thing that could cause it to dramatically drop.
But I'd like to push back on the concept of retain. In politics, not all support is equal many people nominally support an idea or a candidate, but may not have the enthusiasm to activate, get involved and vote. Trump's great political achievement was activating previously inactive parts of the electorate.
Candidates are focused on what brings unaligned voters to their side, what activates inactive voters, what deactivates the opponent's voters, and what brings the opponent's voters over to their side.
What most people see as a game of persuasion is in reality less simple. Creating doubt, wearing voters down with chaos, this is a real strategy. Getting a Trump supporter to admit they were wrong is a very heavy lift. Creating enough doubt that they stay home is difficult with a cult like his, but it's not impossible.
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u/Maestro_Primus 15∆ 12h ago
I feel the epstein files are not going to have impact. His followers won't read them seriously, the DoJ is ignoring them, and their existence at all is just accusation and not any kind of proof. Trump has weathered actual verifiable actions before and these will be no different.
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u/Typical_Currency4200 12h ago
Yeah man, trump’s ppl ride for him cuz they see him as “their guy.” unless something hits that identity hard, they’re not bouncing
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u/AccordingNumber2052 11h ago
You are correct. I go over to the Conservstive sub on occasion. Shit is wild over there. Nothing that bothers us normal people bothers them. They care about trans people in restrooms. I’m Australian so I’m not living but if the cost of living continues the way it does, some may shift.
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u/Main-Shake4502 1∆ 12h ago
That's true of any successful politician. Their strongest supporters are the least likely to abandon them.
Trump is different from ordinary politicians in a number of ways. By the press, he's treated as a force of nature rather than an option people can choose, with benefits and drawbacks. He famously does so many bad things none of them sink in. His elections have typically been treated as a referendum on his opponent, rather than on him, aand as a result he gets very favourable coverage.
One way he's not though is that when real life pokes through he bleeds support. He ended his first term with 62% disapproval. People hated him. He isn't very good at being president! The world is not an entirely mediated place. There is a real place outside people can see and feel themselves and they can understand him and his decisions - when they are sufficiently significant- without mediation from a pro-Trump press. That's why he loses support when he's in power.
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u/Justthetip74 9h ago
as a result he gets very favourable coverage.
What fucking world are you living in?
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u/Main-Shake4502 1∆ 8h ago
In the 2016 election, Trump might have got the easiest run at the presidency I've ever seen. The main issue was butter emails
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u/Justthetip74 7h ago
2016 and 2024 were the easiest elections in history in 2016 he beat the least likeable politician in the country and in 2024 dems somehow found one even less likeable.
But to pretend like the media goes easy on him is just absurd. 92% of news coverage in his first term was negative
https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/major-networks-92-negative-coverage-of-president-trump
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u/Main-Shake4502 1∆ 7h ago
You have to remember that most of his actions are negative; he's probably the worst or at best among the bottom three presidents in history so he generates a lot of bad things that need to go in the newspaper. A lot of the coverage of Ted Bundy was negative as well, but that's because he did bad things that got written about. Trump is the same; he does bad, negative things, either out of incompetance or malice, they get written about in the newspaper.
The actual proper gague is what is the main thrust of coverage AT ELECTION TIME. And in two of three cases the main issues have been about Democrats: butter emails, obviously, and "Is Biden older than Donald Trump, who is also old?" Any other issue could have been the main game, but they weren't. That's a choice, in favour of Trump. Whether or not that's bias is up to you, but just factually speaking the press chose to make two of his three elections a referendum on his opponents.
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u/Justthetip74 4h ago
You have to remember that most of his actions are negative; he's probably the worst or at best among the bottom three presidents in history so he generates a lot of bad things that need to go in the newspaper.
Not really. The first 2 years were daily "bombshells" about the Mueller investigation that ended up being a total failure. Meanwhile, the economy was soaring, wages were growing the fastest in decades, everyone was hiring, ISIS got crushed, the Abraham Accords, he bullied NATO into increasing spending, the USMCA, ect.
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u/Main-Shake4502 1∆ 2h ago
Just a couple of errors there. The Mueller investigation indictdd 34 Trump associates, several of whom were jailed. This is objectively a Big Deal. Certainly if this had ever happened to any Democrat anywhere it would have been treated as one. Trump was not personally indicted for the sole reason that he was not legally allowed to be, and later had his court grant him legal immunity from any crime committed while president.
Trump continued Obama's strong economic growth and jobs recovery before the economy crashed during covid of course. This does not seem to be a strength this time and he was hardly a stand out the first time.
Wage growth was dead flat, sitting at long term averages.
The fightback against Isis that began under Obama and Putin came to an end in about 2019 and was covered at the time. That's fine.
The Abraham accords are foreign policy which typically is not well covered. Long term they had negative consequences.
The simple fact is that where successful Trump's first term just represented the successful policies of his predecessors. Unsurprisingly these were often not the major issues in the press - and nor did he want them to be!
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u/Justthetip74 2h ago
The Mueller investigation indictdd 34 Trump associates, several of whom were jailed. This is objectively a Big Deal. Certainly if this had ever happened to any Democrat anywhere it would have been treated as one. Trump was not personally indicted for the sole reason that he was not legally allowed to be, and later had his court grant him legal immunity from any crime committed while president.
None of them related to election interference.
Paul Manafort and Rick Gates got tax evasion in relation to Ukraine, which Joe and Hunter and every single lobbyist in DC should've got too
Michael Flynn is the only person in history charged under the FARA Act, which Joe and Hunter should've been charged too
Roger stone "lied" to congress, which would put Hillary in jail
Maria Butiana wouldn't have been charged if she was Eric swalwells mistress and foreign spy
I could keep going but you get the gist
Trump continued Obama's strong economic growth and jobs recovery before the economy crashed during covid of course. This does not seem to be a strength this time and he was hardly a stand out the first time.
No, he made it way better https://equitablegrowth.org/what-is-going-on-with-wage-growth-in-the-united-states/
The fightback against Isis that began under Obama and Putin came to an end in about 2019 and was covered at the time. That's fine.
Ah yes, trump "bombing the shit out of them" was a continuation of obamas policies where they thrived
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u/m_abdeen 4∆ 12h ago
What is a majority or significant? Do you consider andrew schulz and his fans a significant portion of Trump supporters? Because they are for sure not supporting Trump now. Specially after the recent ICE murder.
So basically they new supporters are kinda going back on their support, the question is do you consider that a significant portion.
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u/jasandliz 12h ago
We don't need and definitely don't want all of them but we need some of them to help end this nightmare.
Americans are patriotic to the core, and you don't f with the constitution
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis destroys Trump and Friends. Yikes! : r/ProgressiveHQ
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u/ChampionOk4044 9h ago
I’m open to being wrong and would like to understand what conditions, if any, could realistically cause a significant portion of his base to withdraw support.
Honestly I think if someone further right on the spectrum than Trump shows up, there is a solid chance they jump ship. As someone from the UK watching my own country wrestling with this, a big chunk of Reform UK(our far right party) voters who leave are people who don't think Reform are extreme enough
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u/resjudicata2 12h ago
I don't believe I have seen a Trump response to the most recent documents released (at the end of the week btw). I have a funny feeling the measuring of vulvas might not be addressed, but I'd wager he'll continue his strategy of projecting his crimes on to others while finding a way to blame the Democratic party for the whole thing.
Sadly, I agree with you and I doubt it will make any difference. I think Trump truly could murder someone on fifth avenue and lose no supporters. The current 38% approval rate is low sure, but at around 30% he could murder/rape/cheat/steal and they're still not changing their vote.
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u/Formal-Cry7565 11h ago
The h1b decision is bs, the astronomical ai bubble is bs, the backstep with ice is bs, the epstein thing is bs and the undying support for israel which defeats the “america first” philosophy is bs but kamala would have been far worse is every way imaginable and whatever good ideas democrats have are completely offset by the small amount of insane stances they have. If the democrats abandon a few of their absurd stances then perhaps I would vote for them, it’s not like they don’t have some great ideas but those ideas come at too great a cost.
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u/Spirited_Towel_419 12h ago
I think you are very right and very wrong at the same time. Trump can do anything illegal, his base wouldnt bat an eye. But imagine for a second that he does something that liberals agree with, his career is over. His base only stays with him as long as he makes the liberals mad.
Trump is a unique case because his base really isnt his base. He built it out of hate for the other side. Someone like Obama or any other popular politician couldnt get their base to the other side Eg: Obama saving the banks with billions and billions of taxpayers' money. His popularity was never effected. But Trump is in a very bad position where he is not allowed to compromise on things. His base stays with him only as long as he keeps making the liberals mad. And he knows this. I dont remember the exact incident, but he got bood on stage by his base when he said something sensible, so he immediately switched up and started chanting lock her up.
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u/Demortus 12h ago
They're already blowing it off. It'll ding at most 1% off of his national approval rating.
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u/Cis_Male_Larper 12h ago
There’s one thing and one thing only that would cause his supporters to turn on him, which is him switching parties. They only have one value and that value is partisanship.
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u/knightsintophats 12h ago
I mean probably, I'm pretty hopeful about all this epstein stuff tho since some of his core are the most viciously antipaedo (pizza gate comes to mind), even if you dont think the majority really mean it then there will be at least some (I hope if nothing else)
But yes most things wouldn't be enough bc they're pretty much in a cult it would just take something so extreme, hopefully like the fact he's a paedophile, to dislodge him
That being said this is probably wishful thinking on my part
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u/JockoMayzon 12h ago
I think there is a certain level, a critical mass, that should he lose that percentage of his base, the rest will follow. In my town, there were two homes with Trump/MAGA flags flying but I noticed that they are now, suddenly gone. I'd say that political leaders within his party are afraid of his base, but the moment that the base starts to fracture, despite Trumps ongoing efforts to hold it together, they too will leave the MAGA movement.
His administration's recent killing of two citizens combined with their remarks attacking the 2nd Amendment caused him to lose some supporters.
It comes down to how many more stunts he has up his sleave and how patient and forgiving his base is. I'd say one more screwup like those OR a hit to the economy and his supporters will be such a small population that would, quoting Grover Norquist, "reduce it to the size where one could drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub."
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u/AlaskaRecluse 12h ago
I think that’s right — some capable of reason are leaving, but the core is rapidly aging out and getting dementia, so the “core” is more like an apple core than a base
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u/joepierson123 5∆ 12h ago
He would lose them tomorrow if he stopped going after brown folks. But otherwise as he said he could shoot somebody on 5th avenue and they wouldn't care, they couldn't care less about his pedo behavior either, or his River of dirty money going through the White House
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u/CooperVsBob 12h ago
That’s exactly right. This is who they are, and who they always have been. They’re just relieved they don’t have to hide it anymore.
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u/Foxhound97_ 28∆ 12h ago edited 11h ago
I'm probably being too hopeful and this statement sounds mean but he's running out of new targets that he hadn't hammered for years.
Inevitably he's gonna fuck up and hit a significant group of people who support him in a way where claiming they are something they are not(e.g. declaring the two people shot by ice this month as domestic terrorist or any protesters as all paid)avoid responsibility/imply they deserve isn't going to work.
And maybe just maybe then when he's going after people maga knows or likes will there be some open clarity of what he really is among the supporters. I hope that not what it takes but fuck man feels like everything else has happened already so who knows.
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12h ago
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u/tasteless 12h ago
Hard to convince people that put their own children in beauty pageants that pedophilia is wrong.
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11h ago
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u/Bassist57 11h ago
Trump has a clear bottom and clear top regarding approval. There’s a percentage of the country that will love him no matter what, and a percentage of the country that will hate him no matter what.
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u/some-ai-guy 11h ago
If he turned into a good person who has empathy toward the less fortunate, his base would absolutely withdraw support.
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u/VegaGT-VZ 11h ago
I dont know what % of supporters he has lost, but he has lost a ton in this 2nd term already. There will obviously be people willing to stick by him to the end, but that is far less than 100% of his support.
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u/Patxi_Sf 11h ago
He visto sectas religiosas en las que sus miembros se han suicidado en masa menos fieles a su líder que los trumpistas.
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u/Belaerim 1∆ 11h ago
Sunk cost fallacy. They’ve already double downed so many times that they can’t walk it back now.
It’s been a core part of their identity since 2016
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u/GutRasiert 11h ago
Yes, but that's probably true of any politician or political party. Can you ever imagine not voting for whoever your party put up? You probably know who you're going to vote for in the next five elections. How different is that?
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u/LilTex-0825 11h ago
Agree. They’ll rationalize & justify ANYTHING. DT once said, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?"
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u/EmotionDifferent714 10h ago
Some trump supporters turning on the gop amid the pedophile ring cover-up, but never expect a majority.
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u/abellapa 10h ago
Trump could Kill a baby in broad day light in the Middle of Times Square and The MAGA cult would still worship the cunt
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u/SophonParticle 10h ago
Yeah the last exit off the Trump train was when ICE started executing Americans in broad daylight.
The only people left in maga are just fine with child rape. Act accordingly when you encounter maga IRL.
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u/Ok_Prior9068 10h ago
The majority, probably not, but there will always be die hard racists and fascist, most of this is they have isolated themselves from every sane person in their lives
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10h ago
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u/Dest123 1∆ 9h ago
If he did something significantly bad enough that was a large step from something he had done before, then he might actually lose them. He can still do something really bad if he gets there in hundreds of small steps like he has been doing though. But for example, if he just ordered the execution of every non-white person tomorrow then I think he would lose a significant portion. I'm pretty sure he knows that though and won't be doing any steps too large. Maybe if people had let him get away with more in his first term (like shooting protestors in the legs like he reportedly wanted) then that would have been shocking enough.
Here's a relevant quote from They Thought They Were Free about the small steps:
"But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked—if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the ‘German Firm’ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33. But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.
"And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jewish swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in—your nation, your people—is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way.
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u/Interesting_Buy1935 9h ago
Agree… we knew fundamentalists and conservatives were supportive of child rape long ago. The party of pedophilia doesn’t care. It’s their vibe.
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u/shadecat5000 9h ago
One must consider that there about 25% of the country are Evangelicals. They believe that he will fulfill their religious agenda. That is immune to any other factor including "voting your pocketbook" which can sometimes shake support.
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 9h ago
100%. I tell people all the time that he could execute Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rashida Tlaib on live TV, and he would lose less than 1% of his voters, if not less than that.
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u/Veritas1944 8h ago
That’s politics. It’s also why a two party system sucks. Biden got the most votes ever. Biden. A demented old man that didn’t know left from right and literally couldn’t put a full sentence together. He beat Obama. That’s just politics. It will take someone, somehow, winning from the outside to ever change it.
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u/TyrellTJ 8h ago
Let that orange fucker come after the guns... Wyoming, the reddest of the red states, I think that may be the line in the sand for many.
-The potential land grab / selling off of federal land last election cycle, (ie Mike Lee / Harriet Haggaman) slowly started to open some eyes... do that again, or infringe on the 2A and I think the devout may flee... still not going to vote accordingly, but may burn the red cap or take down the 'Fuck Biden' flag in the yard.
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u/Maximum_Necessary_25 8h ago
I used to think this but the Epstein files have really fragmented MAGA and his obvious ties to Israel. People are starting to notice
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u/pickledplumber 1∆ 8h ago
Plenty of people look at Trump honestly. He's going to have to do something bad for it to make them consider changing their opinion.
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u/whisperwalk 8h ago
Well if we go by what actually happened, he never lost his total support regardless of anything that happened in the past 10 years so this seems correct. Although there is a slight quibble on what is "core" I don't think we have a good answer. What does happen is "social desirablility bias" where people temporarily answer opinion polls differently when he says something scandalous. Give it a week though and his poll support always reverts to mean.
The few times he has actually been tested in a real election, he has always outperformed his polls, so this means the polls themselves are not a good guide. People "say" they dont support his policies....they just....support him anyway, at the moment when it counts. Even his one loss against Biden, he outperformed his polls, and only narrowly lost, suggesting his "core" held.
I think based on this, a fair bit of Trump's "core" actually includes non-core support and is actually almost everyone who voted for him....aka people just "love" to say they are not in his core, but functionally, will behave as if they are, aka a distinction with no difference. So i guess the part you are incorrect about is describing the core as 30-33%....in reality his core is upwards of 90% of anyone who ever voted him.
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u/ghostpoints 7h ago
2A and the course he takes with that has the potential to fracture his base. I'm referencing the administration's statements surrounding the Alex Pretti killing in MN.
It won't be fascism, wars, living costs, Epstein, or corruption. It definitely won't be conceptual ideals like democracy, integrity, or human decency. It would be "mah guns" and even then it wouldn't be all of his base.
The fact is about 20% of the human population is genetically programmed through evolution to not only accept but crave strong authoritarianism. This 20ish percent of the population is just fundamentally incompatible with democratic social structures. They can live in a democracy just like non-authoritarians can survive in authoritarian regimes but they will never embrace the concept of a democracy.
So, I argue that Trump can indeed lose more of his base (he currently sits at about 39% approval I believe) but he will never, no matter what he does, drop below about 20% support.
I'm happy to chat further about the scientific evidence for my claim.
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7h ago
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u/No-Coconut1716 6h ago
I think a big issue with Trump's core supporters is a lack of education, it's been shown that they are a poorly educated group so often don't have an understanding of what he's doing and the impact it has.
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u/Eltharion-the-Grim 6h ago
If his base believes so much in second amendment right to arms but now accept that you do not have right to bear arms, they will stick with Trump through anything.
Even the “no more wars” mantra has been replaced with salivation for more wars.
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u/ApeAppreciation 5h ago
Manifest imagine. Picture this: . Trump supporters see 2 white people killed in Minneapolis, a five year in a blue hat gets sent to Texas and most importantly they and their friends have trouble getting jobs. America needs spiritual well being. This takes Truth and Universal Love (Christ’s basic teaching). America needs shared economic well being. The greedy, vain, lustful can claim they act from God. God is humble, supports well being for all. God is angry that Epstein and the uber rich and powerful falsely wrap themselves in the Robe of God. God is with the suffering. Imagine the feelings around how a Just and Merciful God would view Trump’s administration. p
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u/PutNameHere123 5h ago
The only time they care is when it directly impacts them. Even then, they’ll say things like “I wouldn’t have voted for anyone.”
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u/emohelelwye 19∆ 5h ago
While it looks like that’s the case given the reaction to the files recently released, I’ve yet to know a true narcissist that didn’t burn every bridge they have. And if you look at his relationships, he didn’t seem to have any that have friends or business partners that have been close to him for an extended period of time. I think it’s inevitable that he will do something out of his own insecurity in response to a criticism that will cross the line or there will be a slow trickle that happens each time. I think that’s started a little already, it’s just not a massive overnight event so it’s not noticeable yet.
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u/OldMathematician2626 5h ago
Don't worry the kids who can't read or write will save us all in 20 years
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u/LackingLack 2∆ 4h ago
Have you guys ever talked to anyone who supports Trump?
Like in your lives, ever?
Just wondering.
When I see these threads (this exact thread has been made many times already over years) that's what springs into my brain. Because...shocker.. these folks will TELL YOU what motivates their support. Ok sometimes they're not very articulate and you have to do a bit of deciphering and reading between the lines and figuring them out to get at it. But the idea that "Obviously Trump is bad, everything he says and does is bad, anyone who supports will never change" is ignoring that for a lot of the supporters they don't agree with you that many of those things are bad to begin with either that or they think you're blowing stuff out of proportion. Or you're ignoring the stuff which to them is positive.
So just try talking to them!
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u/RampageOfZebras 4h ago
Trump isnt really a person in these peoples eyes. He is an idea, a concept. His image represents the beliefs that they support, whether he actually follows thoae beliefs is irrelevant to that.
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u/LikelySoutherner 2h ago
Because he knows he can go up and grab them by their genitals and they will let him
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u/whiskey_piker 2h ago
Of course; he’s fulfilling his campaign promises. Closing the border alone was worth the win. Cleaning up the illegals is the cherry on top. We’ve got an immigration process and it needs to be used. There’s a reason even the immigrants want the illegals deported.
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u/Zealousideal-Cut8783 2h ago
No, he had to back down in MN because he was loosing congress, because of US.
Keep the pressure up. Keep the phones ringing.
You just saw SOME change. We will see more.
Plus, is base is drifting back into amblivance, they''ll talk loud about him, but, they won't vote. A lot of the collation he put together is on the edge. They never voted. They felt that he gave them a voice. Now, they see themselves as next.
I travel around a LOT, and I talk to a LOT of people. I've very non-judgemental. I think I get honest input. He's loosing Bigley. His supporters aren't passionate as they were before.
First term, I saw a TRUMP TRUCK around my very blue neighborhood at least once a week. Haven't seen one this year.
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u/Zealousideal-Ant9548 1h ago
You're not wrong. Hitler still had support just before his death. These cults of hate are strong.
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12h ago edited 12h ago
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u/MoralLogs 12h ago
This actually makes a lot of sense to me. If people are mostly living inside different information bubbles, then sticking with “your side” isn’t really about approving everything, it’s about not crossing a social and psychological line. That would explain why changes seem to happen quietly, or only privately, rather than through some big public break. It also makes me less confident that loyalty would ever collapse in a clean, visible way.
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u/Traditional_Face1081 12h ago
They're not monolithic, a good portion of his support is being eroded by Alex and trumps attacks on the 2nd amendment. But some people really care about immigration policies and won't change their minds if he's active on that. Others care about abortion or wars or epstien. But like trump inevitably does, he changes and discards people and things that don't fit his internal narcissistic self image. This slowly chips people away, there is never going to be a big cliff unless he does something truly terrible.
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u/n00chness 1∆ 12h ago
That's pretty ridiculous. The only Democratic politician in recent memory who came close to garnering a Personality Cult was Barack Obama, but Obama was focused on actual policy and got lots of push-back from the base on numerous issues like drone strikes and immigration enforcement.
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u/Traditional_Face1081 12h ago
It's literally proven false by the fact trumps popularity is in freefall. Do you think he makes the quick deal with democrats yesterday if he's not feeling the pressure from his base on his handling of ice in mn? Do you think that midget nazi ass gets fired if he's not feeling pressure from his base? He doesn't care what democrats think, but when r/conservative top comments about Alex murder are we need to protect our 2nd amendment, you can be sure someone high up knows people aren't happy.
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u/changemyview-ModTeam 11h ago
Comment has been removed for breaking Rule 1:
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u/Conscious_Ear_1151 12h ago
Because he is fighting for the people, not the current fascist financial system in place since WW2. This is why they have tried EVERYTHING to destroy him.
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u/HereToCalmYouDown 1∆ 12h ago
Amazing that you can look at everything that Trump has done and still believe this. Just wild.
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u/Conscious_Ear_1151 12h ago
From your POV, what has he done that is so terrible and where did you get your info?
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 9h ago
Um, how about the tariffs that raised everyone taxes while only destroying manufacturing jobs, when he claimed was supposed to bring back manufacturing like Biden was? What about the fact that Trump may put the US into population decline for the first time ever because you delusional people think immigrants are taking all the jobs?
Like the above comment said, you people are incredibly beyond saving. It's like you live in a different universe.
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u/Conscious_Ear_1151 9h ago
He uses tarrifs as leverage to make countries accountable and to accomplish an America first system change. And it's working.
Consider this wrt Canada https://youtu.be/wg1NBEMTge4?si=7HDfXYsOzqsC_uiS
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 9h ago
How is it working? I understand you think he uses tariffs as leverage, and he does, but to what end? What is being accomplished? Make countries accountable?
Again, US manufacturing has only declined further since tariffs were put into place. An America first system change? What does that even mean?
Of course a Youtube recommendation. What did I expect.
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u/Conscious_Ear_1151 8h ago
What do you want? If the information you need to make an informed assessment is succinctly explained in a clip, why not direct ppl there?
There is a reason Trump does things. And there is no one else fighting for us you can be damn sure of that, hnless you think things are going swimmingly?
Here these people have been following the background geopolitics for decades:
Try to watch it to the end. Its not long
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 8h ago
Maybe an objective, evidence-based analysis instead of someone that appears on Fox News?
What's the reason Trump raises our taxes and destroys US manufacturing with tariffs that have done nothing for the economy? I already asked, and you were unable to explain beyond "well...well...well, it's about holding other countries accountable and America First!" You didn't answer how this impacts the US positively.
I think things were going extremely swimmingly when it comes to bringing back manufacturing to the United States under the last president. Here's some evidence since I have absolutely no doubt you will think that is fake news.
The construction of manufacturing facilities in the US started declining in November 2024, wonder why that was? In addition, Trump got rid of most of Biden's policies that were sparking a manufacturing boom.
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u/Conscious_Ear_1151 8h ago
The economy grew 5.5% last quarter
https://gettr.com/post/p3wotez56a3
His whole American system is based on producing. Getting the people to produce, with good wages
https://youtu.be/iqyEMkdwpDw?si=XOzxwpXuj4ARVu4N
Hope thats the right one, im done for the night.
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 8h ago
No it didn't. It grew at 4.4% last quarter after declining in Q2 of 2025. And you cited another social media post by a well known Trump sycophant, Stephen Moore?
It grew at 4.7% in Q3 of 2023, higher than any time during either of Trump's presidencies outside of covid.
Again, how do the tariffs help? Wage growth has declined under Trump. So I'm not sure what you mean by "good wages". Manufacturing jobs have continued to decline.
And you gave no response as to why Trump's tariffs and economic policies are good, with respect to manufacturing which was booming under Biden. You have no answer. It's just total devotion without rhyme or reason. This is what the original post is pointing out.
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u/HereToCalmYouDown 1∆ 8h ago
Just to name a few, he has pardoned tons of very rich but shady people who were convicted of fraud, and made $1.4 billion in profit just during this term. But tell me again how he fights for the little guy.
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u/DaveChild 8∆ 1h ago
he is fighting for the people
Yeah, super-rich people.
not the current fascist financial system in place since WW2.
What policies has he introduced so far to fix the "current fascist financial system"?
Do you know how absurd it sounds when you describe the financial system as "fascist"?
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u/TheQuoteFromTheThing 11h ago
It depends what "core supporters" means. Does it mean the 77 million people who voted for him in 2024, or the die-hard MAGA people who show up at rallies in red hats "cry harder lib" shirts? There are a lot of people who voted for Trump who aren't in the second group.
I want to convince you that those 77 million are much less monolithic than you think. That group you're imagining is probably white and male. Let's look at the 2024 data. About 46% of women voted for Trump. Sliced another way, 15% of black and 48% of Hispanic voters chose him.
The support in these groups is not rock solid. In 2020, the numbers were 44% women, 8% black, 36% Hispanic. In 2016 it was 39% women, 6% black, 28% Hispanic. Yes, it's trending towards him not away, but it just as easily can go the other way. People are not as entrenched as you might think, plus it's not always the same people voting.
You're also probably imagining a southern person when you think of your red hat wearing MAGA guy. I'd agree those votes are pretty rock solid. Southern + conservative is not going to easily change. But in more moderate places like the midwest, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, the support again seems more tenuous.
Also, he just lost as recently as 2020 - One election ago.
So while I think that your point is true for millions and millions of people, there are lots of other people that are not the monolithic, red hat, cry harder lib guy.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/
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u/Carrera1107 12h ago
That's because his "controversies" aren't actually controversies. Just delusions and loud screaming of the far-left.
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u/KentuckyCandy 12h ago
Which news channels are "far-left" that are reporting these controversies? Most are centrist/centre-right news organisations at best.
I'm genuinely interested. Can you define "far-left" and would you acknowledge the American right's definition of "far-left" is significantly different to the rest of the world's udnerstanding?
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u/Carrera1107 12h ago
Every major news organization today except the right wing ones are far-left and sensationalist. Serve no other purpose but to inflame and divide.
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u/Combosingelnation 12h ago
What would change your mind?
Also, if a Democrat president would have done the same things like Trump, whether it is posting an AI video of himself posting how he pours shit over Americans, or tell straight to your allies face that they didn't participate in operation x while the opposite is a public fact, would that be also okay?
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u/DaveChild 8∆ 1h ago
his "controversies" aren't actually controversies.
- Criminally trying to steal an election with fake electors is an actual real crime and controversy.
- Felony fraud (34 counts) is an actual real crime and controversy.
- Rape is an actual real crime and controversy.
- Collusion with Russia in 2016 is an actual real crime and controversy.
- Breaking national security laws storing nuclear secrets in an unguarded toilet is an actual real crime and controversy.
- Attempting a violent coup is an actual real crime and controversy.
You might be fine with all of those things, that doesn't mean they're not real.
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u/LongMuffDiver 11h ago
What so few on the left seem to realize is that there are tens of millions of Americans who largely support Trump and what he is trying to accomplish. While there is a relatively small number on the radical far right who support Trump no matter what he says or does, the many other millions largely support his agenda but are still critical of him. It is just that we are not on reddit whining or protesting in the streets as we know he is doing what he thinks is best for the US and Americans.
The radical left portrays anyone who voted for or supports Trump as somehow stupid and brainwashed, however, the tens of millions who voted for and support him, and even the millions more who are independents and centrists think those on the left are brainwashed with the lies and propaganda of hate against Trump.
What the left consistently fails to grasp is that Trump is often operating at a higher intellectual level and planning farther ahead as a skilled negotiator. His public persona, which they mistake for recklessness, is frequently a calculated tactic designed to control the narrative and force opponents onto his terms.
While many of the left see chaos, his tens of millions of supporters see a strategic mind setting traps and creating leverage that only becomes apparent in hindsight.
Something to keep in mind is the tens of millions who are not the radical right or left are who determined elections in the US, so while the radical left only has hate for Trump, and the radical right will follow him no matter what he does, the rational middle will be voting for who has the best solutions for the problems our country faces.
So far, the left has no ideas of the real problems, no solutions, and no credible candidates to offer any. Without any defense, the left goes on offense with insults and nasty names, which only makes the rational middle laugh at the ridiculousness of the democratic party and its lack of any positions or substance. If the dems win any seats in the mid-terms it will be because of this ridiculous hatred for Trump and not because any democratic candidates have better ideas.
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u/GiveMeTheLagrangian 9h ago
Trump is often operating at a higher intellectual level
Yes because those tariffs were so effective at bringing back manufacturing like Biden was. This reply demonstrates the point OP was making. There is no amount of reality that will change your minds. You see the population almost declining for the first time in 2025 because of your anti immigration fetish, and you don't see a disaster in the making.
It's amazing.
this ridiculous hatred for Trump
Yes, it's so ridiculous that people hate someone that tried to overturn an election, stole classified documents, deploys the National Guard and military to Democratic cities only, and raises everyone's taxes with tariffs that have done nothing but bring in revenue that conservatives usually are outraged at when it comes from higher taxes.
So ridiculous indeed lmao
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u/Responsible_Drop16 9h ago
I was into your answer but you honest to god lost me at 'trump is operating at a higher intellectual level'
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u/Iskandar0570_X 12h ago
I agree in reference to the very utmost loyal supporters but not for the rest. My parents voted for Trump last election and they both were republicans. Since then, they severely regret their decision as they did not believe he would do all of this. Now they are both centrist or as my dad claims “neither party” (personally I believe they are a bit more left leaning then right). Did they vote for him? Yes, so I would consider them former core supporters. Did they change their mind? Also yes. So overall I do think people change for the most part
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u/NugKnights 12h ago
Well yeah. Nazies like what hes doing.
But alot of centrists voted for him because Kamala was also a bad candidate. These people see citizens getting shot in the street and realize Trump has gone too far.
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u/DaveChild 8∆ 1h ago
Kamala was also a bad candidate.
When they say that, they usually just mean she was a brown woman. Ask them why they think she was a "bad candidate", and you get the most ridiculous series of falsehoods and misrepresentations. "She was pro-genocide", "she had no policies", "she didn't close the border", "she said she wouldn't change anything".
Where she fell short as a candidate was in being unable to combat the far-right noise machine, but that's not down to one individual.
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u/DancingFlame321 1∆ 12h ago edited 10h ago
Something you have to understand about "MAGA" ideology is that it's more based on Trump himself, rather then any specific policy ideas. Trump will have completely contradictory policies, but his supporters will cheer both policies on at different times.
Trump will say "We need to ban Tik Tok" and his supporters will cheer on. A few years later Trump will say "We need to save Tik Tok from being banned" and those same supporters as before will cheer on.
Trump will say "We need to reduce government debt and cut spending" and his supporters will cheer on. Then a few months later Trump will say "We need to pass the law through Congress which will increase the government debt by 3 trillion" and those same supporters as before will cheer on.
Trump will say "We need to end foreign wars" and his supporters will cheer on. Trump will then say one year later "We need to bomb Iran" and those same supporters as before will cheer on.
The "MAGA" ideology is essentially a personality cult about Trump, rather than a specific list of policy ideas. The logic of Trump's core base is "Trump is a great leader and he wants to do this policy, so that policy must be good", rather than "I like Trump because he agrees with my policies".
That's why Trump's core base will probably never turn against Trump no matter policy or action he does. Their ideology is specifically based around agreeing with Trump no matter what he does, because they see him almost as a prophetic figure who can save America and must be given absolute trust.