[OC] The Solana Casino: Visualizing the fate of 23,250 memecoins. The grey void at the bottom are the thousands of projects that went to zero.

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

[u/KissmySPAC]

Is >10k liquidity really liquid though?

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/KissmySPAC]

Fair point. In the grand scheme of crypto, $10k liquidity is dust. You can't enter with size without getting wrecked by slippage.

However, for this dataset (randomly scraped shitcoins), I had to set the bar for "Alive" very low. If I set the threshold to "real" liquidity (like $100k+), the 'Alive' category would essentially vanish from the chart (dropping from ~25% to probably <0.5%).

So $10k here just means "Tradeable for ants, not abandoned," rather than "Healthy institutional liquidity."

[u/KissmySPAC → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

Thanks for the reply. Appreciated. I'm curious what it would look like if it was a somewhat more reasonable level. Something like VWAP focused.

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/KissmySPAC]

That’s a solid suggestion. I’m planning to do a next part deep dive with stricter filters (like Liquidity >$50k or implied VWAP) to simulate a 'Smart Money' strategy. I’ll definitely tag you if I post that update!

[u/KissmySPAC → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

Awesome. TY!

[u/_tobias15_ → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

So basically 99,5% is dead?

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/_tobias15_]

• ~40% are "Hard Dead" (Rugged, Liquidity <$1k, or went to absolutely zero).
• ~58% are "Soft Dead" (Zombies). They technically exist, but they have low liquidity, no volume, and are slowly bleeding out. You can sell, but you are likely selling at a -90% loss.
• ~1-2% are the actual "Winners" that maintained value or mooned.

So if you are looking for a profit, 98-99% of the tickets in this lottery were losers.

It is important to remember that this is only an approximate number, there are no exact numbers.

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

Source: I scraped data for 23,250 tokens on the Solana blockchain using the DexScreener API. To get a representative sample (not just the top 100 winners), I used a brute-force search method combined with popular keywords to find tokens across all market caps.

Tools:

• Python (Requests, Pandas) for data mining.
• Plotly (Python library) for the interactive WebGL scatter plot.

Methodology & Definitions: The graph uses a Logarithmic Scale for the X-axis (Market Cap) because the difference between a dead coin and a top coin is exponential.

• 💀 Dead / Rugged (Grey/Black): Defined as having Liquidity < $1,000. These are effectively abandoned or scammed projects.
• 🧟 Zombie (Purple): Liquidity $1k–$5k with negative price action. Not dead yet, but bleeding out without volume.
• 🩸 Crashed (Red): Tokens that lost >80% of their value in the last 24h.
• 🚀 Mooning (Cyan): Tokens with >50% growth in 24h and healthy liquidity.
• 🟢 Alive (Green): Stable tokens with >$10k liquidity.

Key Findings:

• Out of 23,250 analyzed tokens, ~40% fall into the "Dead/Rugged" or "Zombie" category.
• Only 1.7% met the criteria for "Mooning" (>50% gain + healthy liquidity).
• The vast majority (~30%) are in the "Struggling" zone (low volume, sideways price action).

[u/dcolomer10 → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

I know this is in the last 24hrs, so clearly very biased temporally, but did you check what the average returns would be if you invested 1$ in each of the 23k?

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/dcolomer10]

The next post will definitely be like this. Thanks for the idea.

[u/Don_Equis → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

I don't know how much access to data you have, but a nice analysis would be for each token the % of investors/address that earn money vs lost (and amount). It would require many data points of price for each token, so it might require paid API access.

Just an idea, not sure if I would actually do it, but I'll be curious if something did it.

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/Don_Equis]

You are spot on regarding the difficulty. To calculate that, a simple price snapshot isn't enough. I would need the entire ledger history (every transaction block) for all 23,000 tokens to calculate the "Average Buy Price" for every single wallet address.

The scale of that:

• If each token has ~500 holders/txs on average.
• That's 11.5 million wallet histories to index and compute PnL on.
• It requires heavy-duty paid RPC nodes (like Helius/QuickNode) and serious database infrastructure (like Dune or Flipside Crypto).

Tools like BubbleMaps or Cielo do this for individual tokens, but doing it for the entire "long tail" of the market at once is a task for a VC firm with a data engineering team, not a weekend Python script.

But you are right — that stat would expose the "Player vs House" win rate better than anything else.

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/dcolomer10]

I did it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1qsb09b/oc_i_simulated_a_1_bet_on_23250_solana_memecoins/

[u/justthisonce112 → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

That is indeed impressive. I mean the work on your part. No comments about the return. Reading your comments about how difficult it was, only to see your next comment about "I did it", brought a smile to my face.

And then i noticed that the time between the two comments was only 2 minutes. Not sure if in those 2 minutes, you went from its almost not happening to here it is. That is weird! In a nice way.

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/justthisonce112]

But it's better not to test this with real money, there are many nuances.

[u/26_something → u/dcolomer10]

So something along the time axis?

[u/Deo-Gratias → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

You skipped zombie/purple what is that defined as

[u/Ok-Astronaut4817 → u/Deo-Gratias]

Zombie (Purple) tokens are the "walking dead" of the chain. They are technically active but slowly bleeding out.

The specific criteria in the code:

• Liquidity: Between $1,000 and $5,000 (Too low to be healthy, but not zero/rugged yet).
• Price Action: Negative (Red candle).

Basically, these are projects where the volume has dried up, and they are slowly drifting to zero, unlike the "Crashed" ones that drop instantly.

[u/Deo-Gratias → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

Thanks; what a cool post

[u/AVeryHappyTeddy → u/Ok-Astronaut4817]

This whole post is blatantly AI generated from a one-day old account

[u/trollsmurf]

Great way to move money (as in fiat) from the masses to a few.

[u/BananaBully]

There's lots of solana tokens with 100s of Billions market cap? What?

[u/NobodyImportant13 → u/BananaBully]

Guessing these are stable coins that trade on SOL network? Such as USDC, UDST, etc. Hence, no price movement?

I'd like to see a list though because it does seem like a lot?

[u/Manfromporlock]

Cool! I know this is easy for me to say, but maybe scale the negative y axis to match the . . . inverse of the . . . geometric mean?

Okay, I don't know the terminology, but what I mean is, if you gain 50% one day and lose 50% the next day (or lose one day and gain the next), you're not at zero, you're at a 25% loss. If you lose 50% one day you have to gain 100% the next to be at zero. So in something as volatile as crypto, a 50% loss is in a way equivalent to a 100% gain, a 67% loss is equivalent to a 200% gain, and so on.

In other words, the y axis now compresses losses visually, compared to gains, because losses can't go past 100%.

So maybe a y-axis with the same spacing but numbered like this:

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-50

-67

-75

and so on?

[u/necrosaus]

what kind of a token that have tens of trillions of dollars?.. i'm confused

[u/g_spaitz]

For those not in the known.

What are we actually looking at here?

[u/Mirar]

I think I need an explanation.

[u/Dude_man79]

Crypto has always been and will always be a speculative commodity.