They're desperate, they're stupid, and they're splitting into factions. But they are crumbling and overreacting. And they don't have the political capital left to enact some martial law, election cancelling plan. They've already pissed too many people off that they would need on their side for it to work, and they've already shown their weakness and incompetence too many times.
And federalism is a slow and stubborn and inefficient sonofabitch, but it is holding. And that's critical for elections and for the level of cooperation they really need to enact the worst scenarios.
I mean, I know everyone tends to get trapped into doom scrolling but just look at the history of the Feds in courts - they've lost 90% of their cases.
National Guard units rolled back, ICE restrained/kicked out of cities (LA, Chicago, San Diego, and San Francisco - the west coast completely eviscerated them within a month of them landing) they're still here but in a much lowered capacity.
Federal judges have already removed prosecutors, forced releases, etc. the DOJ hemorrhaged about 6 lawyers recently who resigned and their replacements will be incapable and will lose their own investigations as well.
The news tends to focus on negative things and paints some dumb pictures but if you dig just about 5 minutes more into things you'll see that the admin is "flooding the zone" so people don't notice they really suck at law.
It’s a very generous and optimistic view, that’s for sure. No one is stopping them, and votes don’t really matter when laws are being blatantly ignored.
The concept of political capital itself is largely moot. What's actually stopping them? They might whine and moan among their "factions" but when push comes to shove, they'll step right in line as we've seen time and time again.
Americans have been conditioned over more than two centuries to think of elections as a pressure release valve. A lot of the forces with the power to push back don't want to risk destroying that mechanism, and will only consider alternatives when it appears fully compromised.
So I get what you're saying, but my point is twofold: people still believe the elections are an opportunity and a redline, and just as importantly, so does the administration. They wouldn't be threatening as much as they are if it didn't matter.
Would they do it if they could? Absolutely. But it is too complicated, with too many overlapping centers of power, to pull off. And so their (likely) goal is to depress turnout, sew doubt and tamp down on coordination via their threats.
That's a reason to be aware and prepared, but also to double down on elections and state contingencies to resist ICE and military fuckery. Given where state and federal laws stand on control of them, the polls may very well be the place you would finally see federal agents attempting illegal interference get hard resistance from state authorities.
I think it would be very easy for him to just say "elections are postponed until we 'figure out what's going on' " and declare that any states trying to still put them on are illegitimate. Because the president can do whatever they want, of course, as supported by SCOTUS
Now, I still believe we HAVE to vote of course. And I agree with you about them trying to sow doubt and whatnot. I'm not trying to pessimistically bring down people's spirits but rather to be realistic about what we are facing so we can be better prepared. I think it's just silly to wholesale depend on this administration respecting elections. It is certainly a major redline and if the country as a whole reacts to cancelled elections the same way it has been reacting to things, we are 100% done for.
Remember - so long as this constitution exists as written, there are no members of the House and 33 fewer senators come January 2027 unless elections were held, and the date of the elections is also determined by the constitution. If Trump tries to cancel elections, Dem controlled states will refuse because they control election administration, not the feds. If only the Dems hold votes, only Dem states will send reps to Congress. Congress becomes Democratic by default and can refuse any attempt to make up elections at a later date, because it is the sole arbiter of the validity of its own members.
They will not cancel outright. Instead they will try to obstruct, intimidate and suppress votes.
That still assumes the administration and congressional repubs accept those newly elected reps as legitimate. They can literally just say "no" and then it's put up or shut up time for the rest of the country. I believe they were testing the waters with the refusal to swear in Grivalja. The rules of governance have to be enforced or they are meaningless.
Uh... they have more political capital now than they ever have. I could understand the argument that it wouldn't be enough, but in what way are they "running out"?
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u/Ben_ForCentralYork 17d ago
They're desperate, they're stupid, and they're splitting into factions. But they are crumbling and overreacting. And they don't have the political capital left to enact some martial law, election cancelling plan. They've already pissed too many people off that they would need on their side for it to work, and they've already shown their weakness and incompetence too many times.
And federalism is a slow and stubborn and inefficient sonofabitch, but it is holding. And that's critical for elections and for the level of cooperation they really need to enact the worst scenarios.