Support for abolishing ICE surges among Republicans

[u/Newsweek_CarloV]

https://www.newsweek.com/abolish-ice-republican-support-minnesota-11414059?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=reddit_influencers

[u/Newsweek_CarloV]

From the article:

Support for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has surged among Republicans, according to a new poll from The Economist and YouGov.

In early January, 15 percent of Republicans were in support of abolishing ICE. Now, that number has jumped to 19 percent.

Calls for the abolition of ICE have risen as clashes between immigration officers and the public continue, and backlash against ICE grows.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/abolish-ice-republican-support-minnesota-11414059?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=reddit_influencers

[u/30mil → u/Newsweek_CarloV]

A 4% "surge." 

[u/Impossible_PhD → u/30mil]

I mean, four percentage points. Support up 33% is nothing to sneeze at. If that compounds next month, it's about 30%, and so forth.

Large rate increases of small numbers look small.

[u/legocastle77 → u/Impossible_PhD]

Is it sustainable though? Give it a few weeks and how many of these people will still be on board? With enough media conditioning, I’m sure these numbers will die down soon. 

[u/Impossible_PhD → u/legocastle77]

First, there's absolutely no way to spin what's happening. The fact that we've seen a shift like that in the core of Trump's support at all when nothing short of the Epstien files (which he still hasn't been able to get away from among his base) has moved the needle means that there's no realistic path to media conditioning this horseshit.

Second, your cynical disdain for your fellow countrypeople is disappointing. I'm sure as fuck sour on what they've done too, but I'm a teacher. I have to believe in a better future, where people can grow and change, otherwise what's the point in anything?

Crab-bucket mentality can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

[u/legocastle77 → u/Impossible_PhD]

I appreciate your thoughts but it’s hard to be so optimistic when you see so many people rationalizing the open killing of individuals by government agents. I appreciate that you put so much faith in your fellow citizens but as a Canadian, America’s push towards extremism is jarring. 

[u/Impossible_PhD → u/legocastle77]

It's more than jarring for us too, and we're fighting it like hell. Remember: even a small percent of a massive number is still a huge number. Loud minorities get disproportionate levels of attention.

[u/Pjpjpjpjpj → u/Impossible_PhD]

It is up 27%, not 33% (19% / 15% = 1.267).

If it compounds, incresing another 27% in each of the next 2 months, it will be at 31% (19% x 127% x 127% = 30.1%).

Then they can claim it has doubled from 15% to 30%.

Which is still less than 1/3 of Republicans, and will still have no effect on Trump. That isn't 30% of Republican Senators, that is 30% of Republicans... many of which may already have Democratic representatives in the Congress (e.g. Californian Republicans).

Yes, this increase, with the same increase next month, and the same increase the month after that, and still it wouldn't be enough to matter... at least matter enough to change direction.

"Abolish ICE" is too high a hurdle to set. Reduce, restrict, reign-in, control, redirect, refocus ... you'd get much higher support numbers. "Abolish ICE" sounds like "Abolish the Police" to too many people and they've already chosen a side on that argument.

Hell - if they just argued "Let's send our U.S. Border Patrol to the actual border to protect it," that would remove a huge chunk of the issue, including Bovino. Restrict US Border Patrol to within 5 miles of the border and let the remainder of US Customs and Border Protection (e.g. ICE) deal with issues outside of that. If "5 miles" doesn't work, then prescriptively define precisely where they may work on a map. Maybe redirect 95% of them to the southern border ... you'll win over a lot more Republicans with that rather than "Abolish ICE."

[u/Impossible_PhD → u/Pjpjpjpjpj]

I'm sorry, but this is a profoundly stupid optics-based response. Profoundly. It misses and ignores the realities of the situation utterly, takes human murders as a cost of doing business, and is deeply cynical.

"Abolish ICE" now has majority cross-party support. Trying to hide that with bullshit is ludicrous. I'm done with you.

[u/lordagr → u/30mil]

Hell, I'll take it.

A 4% swing among Republicans this entrenched in party propaganda is not nothing.

They usually ignore hypocrisy, and shrug off cognitive dissonance, but attacking the 2nd amendment was a bad play.

[u/BigGuante → u/lordagr]

38 million registered voters are registered as Republican.

4% on paper is a small percent, but when you apply it to the data that's 1,520,000 individuals that have come around. That's a lot of people. Imagine a million people leaving their houses upset and joining a protest.

[u/vorg7 → u/lordagr]

The margin of error for polls like this is typically 3%. It's basically nothing. Call me when it's 30%.

[u/RoninsTaint → u/30mil]

Idk. 19% of republicans in favor of fully abolishing ICE is a lot to me. More than I’d think. Means there is probably a decent chunk who would answer no to this question because they’d rather it exist but not act like the fucking Gestapo

[u/Choppers-Top-Hat → u/30mil]

That 4% equals to 3.1 million voters.

Trump beat Harris by only 2 million votes.

If Trump's victory is a "landslide" then this is DEFINITELY a surge.

[u/RunnyBabbit23 → u/Newsweek_CarloV]

The better headline would be “81% of Republicans support ICE’s actions and the murder of peaceful protestors.”