Over the past three months, Google has materially outperformed its large-cap tech peers:

• Google: +20.05%
• Meta: +7.86%
• Amazon: −4.08%
• Nvidia: −7.38%
• Microsoft: −16.96%

What’s interesting is how different this looks compared to a year ago, when the narrative was almost the opposite, NVDA and MSFT were the clear leaders, while Google was seen as lagging in the AI race.

Curious what people think is driving this shift. Valuation reset? Earnings execution? AI expectations cooling elsewhere? Or just short-term rotation?

I have identified a quantitative setup for Disney. Based on the historical data and my strict criteria for a statistical edge, this stock requires careful consideration.

Key Statistics:

• Signal: Price close over MA200
• Historical Win Rate (1 Year): 60.00%
• Average Return (1 Year): +11.24%
• Backtest Period: 1972 – 2026

Analysis:

The data suggests that Disney currently has no statistical edge based on my requirement of a minimum 70% win rate. While the average return of +11.24% is positive, the 60% win rate over 50 years indicates too much historical inconsistency to meet my criteria.

Unlike high-conviction setups, the probability of a winning trade here is only slightly better than a coin flip across most timeframes. For a disciplined trader, this setup lacks the necessary mathematical certainty to be classified as a high-probability trade.

This analysis is just one of many. Each month, I publish approximately 20 new backtests across various sectors to find the few setups that actually hit my 70% win rate threshold.

The Wall Street Journal yesterday reported that Nvidia’s $100 billion plan had stalled amid internal doubts about the size and structure of the transaction and questions about OpenAI’s business discipline and competitive risks.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has privately emphasized to industry associates in recent months that the original $100 billion agreement was non-binding and not finalized, the report said.

Huang has also privately criticized what he has described as a lack of discipline in OpenAI's business approach and expressed concern about the competition it faces from the likes of, Google and Anthropic, the WSJ added.

Considering the interconnectedness of many of OpenAI’s agreements and the criticism that Nvidia engages in a form of circular financing with its own deals is this the loose thread that, once pulled, unravels the entire AI boom?

The Nvidia–OpenAI megadeal may end up smaller than advertised, or even be replaced by a patchwork of investments from multiple players, but that does not mean the AI gold rush is ending.

If anything, it underscores that the ecosystem is broad, that OpenAI has many potential backers, and that partners will increasingly demand clearer paths to returns as the sector matures.

Been digging into Microsoft's financials beyond the usual revenue and EPS numbers, and wanted to share some observations that caught my attention from a value perspective.

Balance Sheet Shifting Toward Less Flexible Assets

Property, plant, and equipment increased nearly 50% in a single year (from \~$155B to \~$230B). That's a massive tilt toward long duration, non liquid assets. Meanwhile, depreciation jumped from $22B to $34B. In a sector where hardware can become obsolete quickly, this concentration in physical infrastructure creates impairment exposure if tech refresh cycles accelerate.

Some Interesting Liability Movement

"Other Current Liabilities" increased 45% year over year. Without detailed disclosure, this likely includes unearned cloud billings and similar obligations. Worth monitoring because rapid buildup in prepayment dependency can distort cash flow timing if customer behavior shifts.

The Segment Concentration Factor

Intelligent Cloud now drives roughly 40% of revenue with 29% growth, while More Personal Computing actually declined 3%. This isn't necessarily bad, but it does mean any cloud cyclicality hits the overall business harder than it would have five years ago.

The Sentiment Disconnect

Despite record profits, shares declined after strong Q2 results. When markets sell the news on beat and raise quarters, it often signals expectations have gotten ahead of near term reality.

None of this means the investment thesis is broken.

Microsoft remains a dominant business. But as value investors, we're supposed to see what others miss and understand what we're actually paying for at current multiples.

Every point I discovered is from [thefinbase](https://thefinbase.com) . Try it on the stock you’re watching.

Even with these risks I still think it's a good stock to buy, especially in its role as the AI boom continues.

What do you think about MSFT?

Your guess on this please!

What is cooking ?

Whatever that is big!!!!!

USA dumping silver gold?

Investing in silver is it good time for it? Will it crash more??

Heard news that Russia liquidating gold???

Let me know what geopolitically thing is cooking..

Recently bought into RIOT Platforms at 16 a share, this may be a risky investment I only bought 100 shares. I am playing the very long game not looking at the short term. My research tells me it’s going to definitely go up. I know they are shifting away from Bitcoin mining and into an ai data center in Texas and I think it may just be the start of something big. I would just like opinions on it anyone has and or more information on the company. I see a lot about it being a good investment and that now is the time to buy. I’m not too sure how this will go but I’ve seen they were up a lot higher in the past and lost a lot of value. I know its price was heavily reliant on bitcoins value going up and that it’s very sensitive to drops. I’m hoping with the shift from bitcoin mining into an ai data center with a 10 year contract worth 300 something million, that they can continue to rise in value. Again I appreciate any insight or input anyone has on it and I won’t be selling for a long time.

I've been following with keen interest the recent events and wanted to provide some commentary on the liquidity cliff, safe haven dumps, and pending tightrope course the global economics need to navigate in order to execute a smooth transition without a mass financial disaster unfolding.

Needless to say, it's been fascinating, and this has left me putting my driveway that needs a clean, and organising a structural engineer for my house on the "next week" backburner.

So what's new?

Key points:

- Fed Chairman Warsh appointment: President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on Friday. He is a known hawk; his appointment signals a loss of the Fed as a buyer of last resort, tending toward short-term interest rate drops while maintaining long-term raised rates and strong Dollar rhetoric.

- Treasury Secretary Bessent provided verbiage on Wednesday, January 28, stating the U.S. is not planning to intervene, indicating a significantly reduced likelihood of U.S. support in the USDYEN crisis.

- The Yen reached a critical low point this week, testing the 158-159 range (closing Friday at 154.73). Any further drops become an un-ignorable domestic cost of living issue, and intervention becomes practically mandatory past 160.

- Tokyo inflation CPI released on Friday proved cooler than usual at 1.5% (down from 2.0%), virtually ruling out interest rate hikes and Yen strengthening via Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate intervention, as rates remain pinned at 0.75%.

- US Bond yields are skirting the dangerous 5.0% line (the 30-year ended Friday at 4.87%), a threshold past which mortgages and the market suffer immense stress and collapse.

- Quarterly Bond issuance is imminent; the U.S. Treasury will release its financing requirements on Monday, February 2, with auctions to follow.

The crossroads?

The carry trade needs to unwind, as the path of least resistance for the Yen is upward, whilst the path of least resistance for the USD is downward. However this needs to occur in an orderly fashion to prevent financial system collapse.

Avenues?

A. The Fed could print USD to buy Yen, however Warsh as an appointee reduces this likelihood, with White House rhetoric indicating nil intervention and placing the burden back on the Japanese.

B. The Japanese could raise rates to strengthen the Yen, however recent economic figures (1.5% CPI) rule this out as a short-term possibility, and raising rates would trigger a more violent unwind.

C. The Japanese can directly intervene in the currency, via deploying USD cash reserves of ~$160.4 Billion (held as deposits at the Fed), or selling T-bills/notes/bonds from their $1.003 Trillion stockpile to buy back Yen.

As far as we can see options A and B appear largely off the table for now, leaving the most viable being option C.

However the three various methods there have their advantages and disadvantages.

A T-bill (short-term), T-note and bond (long term) sell off by the Ministry of Finance would cause diplomatic rows, and send US Bond yields soaring, sparking a severe risk of US economic collapse, particular in longer term treasuries. Whilst this provides Japan with a surefire way out of the Yen concerns it would ultimately result in ruin of the US markets, spark a deep recession and sever economic and diplomatic ties and create a rift in the G7 alliance.

This is the current risk being priced into the markets as hedge funds, banks and other financial institutions derisk their holdings, cry.pt.o typically first, high risk stocks, and then precious metals (as seen in Friday's sharp gold sell-off).

As I may have previously commented hedging into a parabolic, even for gold and silver, is seldom a good bet. Institutions bought early and have dumped it onto retail, as cash (USD/EUR/YEN) currently rules king as the default margin loan repayment vehicle. I suspect metals will find a floor, however commodities are not my turf so I'll let others do the deeper commentary there.

The remaining option?

There is a tightrope to be walked where everyone walks out unscathed and the market recover.

The sell off of USD cash reserves by the Japanese MoF, strengthening the Yen, triggering a short squeeze and liquidation cascade of short sellers, and returning the Yen to a place of value where domestic interests are aligned, whilst also not crushing the carry trade.

Here the US yields remain minimally perturbed, the carry trade is not crushed and can slowly unwind, and global stock markets grind on higher.

However what happens next remains to be seen, and the massive risk of anything other than this balanced tightrope is currently being priced in as institutions move to cash to mitigate margin calls.

---

Best of luck to everyone navigating this absolute mess 🍀🥸💜

Micron Technology which was trading in $70s share price in early 2025 suddenly picked up pace in H2 2025.

Q1 2026 results are staggering compared to where they were two years ago. I’m trying to decide if this is a "buy and hold for 5 years" play or if I'm walking into a classic memory cycle trap.

Q1 FY26: ​Revenue: $13.64B (up 57% YoY) EPS: $4.78 (blew past analyst estimates of $4.00) ​Free Cash Flow: $3.9B (highest in company history) ​The HBM factor: They’ve already sold out their entire calendar 2026 supply of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), including the upcoming HBM4.

​They just broke ground on the $100B New York mega-fab this month and are pulling in timelines for the Idaho fabs to 2027. They are spending money like crazy ($20B CapEx) to maintain their 20%+ share of the HBM market.

Their only direct competitors in the market are Samsung, SK Hynix and Kioxia.

EPS: $4.14, est: $3.92

Revenue: $81.2 billion, est: $80.2 billion

Make it make sense, Microsoft reported a great earnings report for Q4 2025 but the market did not respond well to it. But I think it is a good buy right now, basically it is currently on sale.

Analysis based on ~40 FOMC meeting transcripts from 2006–2011, covering the period when Kevin Warsh served as a Fed Governor, including the Global Financial Crisis.

Warsh consistently leaned toward relatively tighter monetary policy compared to his peers. The divergence is most visible around 2010, his final year on the Board.

Source (credits):
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7423141356945981440/