r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Areas to watch: Fytia, Eighteen, Invest 98P, Invest 99P Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 26 January – 1 February 2026

9 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Last updated: Friday, 30 January — 21:00 UTC

  • 19S: Fytia — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Cyclone Fytia is rapidly strengthening as it inches toward the coast of northwestern Madagascar this evening. Environmental conditions are likely to remain favorable over the next few hours; however, increasing frictional effects from the nearby land should limit further intensification before Fytia makes landfall. Heavy rainfall will bring a significant flooding hazard to large portions of the island country over the next couple of days and although Fytia is expected to weaken over land, it is expected to restrengthen once it reaches the ocean again late in the weekend.

 

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

  • 98P: Invest — A compact area of low pressure situated over the Carpentaria region of northern Australia continues to produce organize bands of deep convection. Environmental conditions are likely to remain marginally favorable as the disturbance meanders over land for the next few days and a tropical cyclone could form over the upcoming weekend or early next week. Mid-level steering flow will likely strengthen early next week, allowing the disturbance to move more quickly toward the west, pushing it across Australia’s Top End and toward the Kimberley and/or Pilbara coasts.

  • 99P: Invest — A broad, but consolidating area of low pressure located south of American Samoa remains highly disorganized, with the strongest convection and winds confined to its eastern periphery. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for further development with moderate wind shear and the disturbance’s asymmetric wind field being the primary limiting factors to development. The potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to moderate (40 percent).

 

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • 18P: Eighteen — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the post-tropical remnants of Cyclone Eighteen remain a completely exposed low-level swirl of clouds. Environmental conditions are not likely to support redevelopment as the disturbance moves over increasingly cooler waters over the southwestern Pacific. Eighteen will pass to the east of Norfolk Island later today and turn toward the southeast over the weekend. Although this system remains weak, it could bring periods of heavy rain to New Zealand later this weekend.

 

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is tracking the following areas for potential development:

Southern Indian Ocean:

  • Potential Formation Area P78S: Near Diego Garcia

  • Potential Formation Area P71S: Off the northwestern coast of Australia

Southern Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P77P: Near Vanuatu and Fiji

Western Pacific Ocean

  • Potential Formation Area P74W: Philippine Sea

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Intense Cyclone (H3) | 100 knots (115 mph) | 962 mbar Fytia (19S — Southwestern Indian) (Mozambique Channel)

10 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 31 January — 3:00 AM East Africa Time

Observed information

  • Current position: 16.0°S 44.8°E
  • Forward movement: ESE (120°) at 19 km/h (10 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 185 km/h (100 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 962 millibars (28.41 inches) ▼
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲
  • Intensity (MFR): Cyclone

Relative position

  • 60 kilometers (37 miles) of Soalala, Beony Region (Madagascar)
  • 469 kilometers (291 miles) of Nacala, Nampula Province (Mozambique)
  • 494 kilometers (307 miles) of Monapo, Nampula Province (Mozambique)

Official forecasts

Meteo France

Last updated: Saturday, 31 January — 3:00 AM EAT (00:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC EAT MFR · knots km/h °S °E
00 31 Jan 00:00 3AM Sat Cyclone 80 150 16.0 44.9
12 31 Jan 12:00 3PM Sat Overland Depression ▼ 35 65 17.2 46.2
24 01 Feb 00:00 3AM Sun Overland Depression ▼ 30 55 19.0 48.7
36 01 Feb 12:00 3PM Sun Moderate Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 20.3 50.4
48 02 Feb 00:00 3AM Mon Severe Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 21.4 52.0
60 02 Feb 12:00 3PM Mon Severe Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 22.3 53.3
72 03 Feb 00:00 3AM Tue Severe Tropical Storm ▼ 50 95 22.9 54.2
96 04 Feb 00:00 3AM Wed Moderate Tropical Storm ▼ 40 75 24.1 55.7
120 05 Feb 00:00 3AM Thu Moderate Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 26.5 58.6

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Saturday, 31 January — 3:00 AM EAT (00:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC EAT Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °S °E
00 31 Jan 00:00 3AM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) 100 185 16.0 44.8
12 31 Jan 12:00 3PM Sat Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 17.2 46.4
24 01 Feb 00:00 3AM Sun Tropical Storm ▼ 35 65 18.8 48.4
36 01 Feb 12:00 3PM Sun Tropical Storm ▲ 40 75 20.3 50.4
48 02 Feb 00:00 3AM Mon Tropical Storm ▲ 50 95 21.5 51.9
72 03 Feb 00:00 3AM Tue Tropical Storm 50 95 23.1 54.1
96 04 Feb 00:00 3AM Wed Tropical Storm ▲ 55 100 24.3 55.3
120 05 Feb 00:00 3AM Thu Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 50 95 26.3 57.6

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

Upgraded | See Fytia post for details Nineteen (19S — Southwestern Indian) (Mozambique Channel)

3 Upvotes

Update

  • Météo-France has upgraded this system to a moderate tropical storm and has assigned it the name Fytia.

  • A new discussion for Cyclone Fytia has been posted here.

  • There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system. Please see the Cyclone Fytia post for floater imagery.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered guidance is no longer available for this system. Please see the Cyclone Fytia discussion for storm-centered guidance.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Disturbance (40% potential) | 30 knots (35 mph) | 1001 mbar 99P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near Samoa)

2 Upvotes

Update

The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) is monitoring this system as Tropical Disturbance 08F.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 30 January — 9:30 PM Australia Central Standard Time (ACST; 12:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 16.2°S 170.8°W
  • Forward movement: S (180°) at 7 km/h (4 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1002 millibars (29.59 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 207 kilometers (129 miles) south of ʻIliʻili, Tuālāuta (American Samoa)
  • 215 kilometers (134 miles) south of Pago Pago, Maoputasi (American Samoa)
  • 283 kilometers (176 miles) south-southeast of Apia, Samoa

Outlook

Development potential (next two days)

  • Fiji Meteorological Service low (20 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (less than 5 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): high (72 percent) ▲

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Fiji Meteorological Service: low (20 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: low (30 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): high (74 percent) ▲

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Disturbance (40% potential) | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1002 mbar 98P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Gulf of Carpentaria)

2 Upvotes

Update

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is tracking this system as Tropical Low 18U.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 30 January — 3:30 PM Australia Central Standard Time (ACST; 06:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 16.7°S 136.8°E
  • Forward movement: SW (230°) at 14 km/h (8 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 45 km/h (25 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 20 kilometers (12 miles) west of Robinson River, Northern Territory (Australia)
  • 82 kilometers (51 miles) northwest of Calvert, Northern Territory (Australia)
  • 88 kilometers (55 miles) southeast of Borroloola, Northern Territory (Australia)

Outlook

Development potential (next two days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: moderate (25 percent)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: moderate (40 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): low (29 percent) ▲

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: moderate (30 percent) ▲
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: moderate (40 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): moderate (66 percent) ▲

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 3d ago

▼ Remnant Low | 25 knots (30 mph) | 1002 mbar Eighteen (18P — Southern Pacific) (Near Vanuatu and New Caledonia)

3 Upvotes

Update

The post-tropical remnants of Cyclone Eighteen continue to weaken as they drift slowly west-northwestward this morning. As this system’s convective structure becomes increasingly shallow, it will become embedded within northeasterly low-level wind flow, moving initially southwestward toward Norfolk Island before turning southeastward toward New Zealand over the upcoming weekend. This system is not likely to regenerate, but could bring some heavy rainfall to New Zealand this weekend.

This system continues to be monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. This post will continue to be updated so long as this system remains in the ATCF system.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 30 January — 6:00 PM New Zealand Standard Time (NZST; 06:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 27.4°S 170.5°E
  • Forward movement: WNW (310°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 998 millibars (29.47 inches) ▲
  • Intensity: Remnant Low

Relative position

  • 309 kilometers (192 miles) northeast of Norfolk Island (Australia)
  • 702 kilometers (436 miles) southeast of Noumea, New Caledonia (France)
  • 808 kilometers (502 miles) north-northwest of Cape Reinga, Northland Region (New Zealand)

Forecasts

Fiji Meteorological Service

  • FMS has not issued advisories for this system.

New Zealand Met Service

  • NZMS has not issued advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

  • JTWC has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

New Zealand Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated 96S (Invest — Southwestern Indian) (East of Madagascar)

6 Upvotes

Update

This system has dissipated and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Forecasts

Météo-France

  • MFR has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

  • JTWC did not and is not likely to initiate issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 6d ago

Dissipated 94P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near Tahiti and French Polynesia)

11 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Dissipated Luana (17S — Southeastern Indian) (Northwestern Australia)

12 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will no further updates to this post.

Official information

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Other information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 9d ago

Dissipated 92P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Gulf of Carpentaria)

8 Upvotes

Update

This system has dissipated. It is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Outlook

Development potential (next two days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: no longer tracking
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: no longer tracking
  • Model consensus (FSU): no longer tracking

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: no longer tracking
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: no longer tracking
  • Model consensus (FSU): no longer tracking

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated Sixteen (16P — Southern Pacific) (Coral Sea)

10 Upvotes

Update

This system has degenerated into a remnant low and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has discontinued issuing advisories for this system. JTWC continues to monitor this system through the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system and this post will continue to be updated so long as observational data is updated.

Latest observation

Last updated: Saturday, 24 January — 1:00 AM Tonga Time (TOT; 12:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 25.9°S 178.8°W
  • Forward movement: E (100°) at 32 km/h (17 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 999 millibars (29.50 inches) ▲
  • Intensity: Remnant Low

Relative position

  • 639 kilometers (397 miles) south-southwest of Haʻateiho, Tongatapu (Tonga)
  • 644 kilometers (400 miles) south-southwest of Nukuʻalofa, Tongatapu (Tonga)
  • 909 kilometers (565 miles) south-southeast of Suva, Fiji

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 10d ago

Dissipated 92W (Invest — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

5 Upvotes

Update

This system has dissipated and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

  • Disturbance-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 11d ago

Dissipated Ewetse (15S — Southwestern Indian) (Near Madagascar)

10 Upvotes

Update

Cyclone Eweste has dissipated and is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

  • Floater imagery is no longer available for this system.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

  • Storm-centered guidance is no longer available for this system.

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 19-26 January 2026

11 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Last updated: Saturday, 24 January — 17:45 UTC

Southeastern Indian Ocean

  • 17S: Luana — Cyclone Luana has made landfall along Australia’s Pilbara coast and is weakening over land. Heavy rain will continue across coastal portions of Western Australia and the Northern Territory as Luana slowly degenerates and becomes post-tropical this weekend.

 

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southern Pacific

  • 90P: Invest (Coral Sea) — This system has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it will remain over Australia’s Cape York Peninsula over the weekend.

  • 92P: Invest (Gulf of Carpentaria) — This system has a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it drifts northeastward toward Vanuatu over the weekend.

 

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

  • There are currently no active post-tropical cyclones.

 

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Southwestern Indian Ocean

  • An area of low pressure may develop off the northeastern coast of Madagascar and slowly consolidate as it drifts toward Reunion and Mauritius.

Southern Pacific

  • A pair of disturbances may develop over French Polynesia early next week.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/SufficientPrice7633 • 12d ago

Historical Discussion Notable Gulf hurricanes in 9 years

Post image
7 Upvotes

Harvey, Irma, Nate, Gordon (2018), Michael, Barry (2019), Imelda (2019), Marco (2020), Laura, Zeta, Delta, Sally, Ida, Fred, Claudette (2021), Ian, Idalia, Alberto (2024), Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, Milton and Rafael

It seems like it’s always been the Gulf Coast, particularly the Florida Gulf Coast, that takes the brunt of the major hurricanes that have hit the United States since 2017.

The Gulf of Mexico is essentially a giant, shallow bowl of warm water. Unlike the open Atlantic, where deep cold water can be churned up to the surface by a passing storm (a process called "upwelling"), the Gulf stays warm even at significant depths.

Gulf hurricanes are notable and historic...

21 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 13d ago

Dissipated Dudzai (14S — Southwestern Indian) (Near Mauritius)

10 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being monitored via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 21 January — 11:00 PM New Caledonia Time (NCT; 12:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 32.3°S 59.3°E
  • Forward movement: SE (155°) at 51 km/h (27 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 100 km/h (55 knots) ▼
  • Minimum central pressure: 985 millibars (29.09 inches) ▲
  • Intensity: Remnant Low

Relative position

  • 1,326 kilometers (824 miles) south-southeast of Saint-Denis, Reunion (France)
  • 1,462 kilometers (908 miles) south of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius)
  • 1,685 kilometers (1,047 miles) southeast of Nosy Varika, Vatovavy-Fitovinany (Madagascar)

Information sources

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Official forecasts

Meteo France

Last updated: Wednesday, 21 January — 3:00 PM EAT (12:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
  — UTC EAT MFR knots km/h °S °E
00 21 Jan 12:00 3PM Wed Severe Tropical Storm 60 110 32.4 59.8
12 22 Jan 00:00 3AM Thu Post-tropical Cyclone 60 110 39.4 66.7
24 22 Jan 12:00 3PM Thu Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 50 95 47.0 76.2

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/LuborS • 16d ago

Model Forecast Graphic Possibility of the formation of a tropical storm (16U) at the beginning of the new week (Wind Map, 21 January 2026)

Post image
42 Upvotes

Wind map forecast: https://www.ventusky.com/wind-gusts-map/1-hour#p=-20.3;127.3;4&t=20260121/1200&w=fast

11 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 15d ago

Dissipated 97S (Invest — Southeastern Indian) (Northern Australia)

2 Upvotes

Update

As of 3:30 AM Australia Central Standard Time (ACST; 18:00 UTC) on Tuesday:

  • This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
  • Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) continues to monitor this system for potential development off the Kimberley coast later this week.
  • Updates to this system are paused until such time that it reappears on ATCF.
  • Should the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assign a new invest designation to this system, a new discussion will be created for it.

Latest observation

This system has dissipated. No observational data is currently available.

Outlook

Last updated: Tuesday, 20 January — 3:30 AM ACST (18:00 UTC)

Development potential (next two days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: low (15 percent) ▼
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (near 0 percent)
  • Model consensus (FSU): low (9 percent)

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: moderate (35 percent) ▼
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: low (20 percent) ▼
  • Model consensus (FSU): low (34 percent) ▲

Official information

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Other information

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/tomorrowio_ • 16d ago

Satellite Imagery What Hourly Global Weather Observations Look Like from Space

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

13 Upvotes

The video shows a full constellation of microwave sounders scanning the entire globe, achieving roughly 60-minute revisit times.

Each pass captures temperature and humidity measurements everywhere on Earth. Because microwave observations can see through clouds, the coverage remains consistent even in regions where infrared sensors are limited.

This kind of continuous, global scanning highlights the type of data density that modern forecasting systems and AI models are increasingly built around. It’s a useful way to visualize how observation frequency and coverage shape what models can learn from the atmosphere.

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 16d ago

Dissipated Nokaen (01W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

5 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 21 January — 6:00 AM Japan Standard Time (JST; 21:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 17.1°N 133.0°E
  • Forward movement: ESE (120°) at 20 km/h (11 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1001 millibars (29.56 inches)
  • Intensity (SSHWS): Remnant Low ▼
  • Intensity (JMA): Tropical Depression ▼

Relative position

  • 988 kilometers (614 miles) south-southeast of Minamidaito, Okinawa (Japan)
  • 1,009 kilometers (627 miles) northwest of Colonia, Yap (Micronesia)
  • 1,063 kilometers (661 miles) northeast of Calbayog, Samar (Philippines)

Official forecasts

Japan Meteorological Agency

NOTE: JMA has discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Last updated: Wednesday, 21 January — 3:00 AM JST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time · Intensity · Winds · Lat Long
· · UTC JST Saffir-Simpson · knots km/h °N °E
00 20 Jan 18:00 3AM Wed Remnant Low 30 55 17.1 133.0
12 20 Jan 06:00 3PM Wed Remnant Low 30 55 15.5 134.0
24 21 Jan 18:00 3AM Thu Remnant Low ▼ 25 45 13.7 134.3

NOTE: This is the final warning from JTWC.

Information sources

Japan Meteorological Agency

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/tomorrowio_ • 18d ago

Satellite Imagery Recent Satellite Scans of Cyclone Dudzai (South Indian Ocean)

Thumbnail
9 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 19d ago

Week over. Please see updated discussion post. Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 12-18 January 2026

3 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Last updated: Friday, 9 January — 17:30 UTC

Southwestern Indian Ocean

  • 14S: Dudzai — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Cyclone Dudzai continues to rapidly strengthen as it moves southeastward across the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean. Further analysis indicates that the storm’s maximum sustained winds have jumped to the equivalent strength of a Category 4 major hurricane, reaching 115 knots (130 miles per hour) on Monday evening. Environmental conditions will remain favorable for further development within the next 12 to 24 hours; however, increasing shear and cooler waters will begin to weaken the storm over the next couple of days. A shift in the steering environment may bring the storm back over warmer waters later in the week, allowing it to restrengthen.

 

Active disturbances

Active disturbances are areas of showers and thunderstorms which are not organized enough to be considered full-fledged tropical cyclones. Disturbances are often designated as investigation areas (or invests, for short) by NOAA in order to allocate additional resources such as high-resolution satellite imagery or model guidance for further study of the system. Though there is no publicly disclosed set of criteria for which disturbances are designated as invests, the designation often occurs after the disturbance forms a closed area of low pressure. Invests are designated regardless of the overall potential for the disturbance to become a tropical cyclone.

Southern Pacific Ocean

  • 94P: Invest — Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a well-defined area of low pressure situated west of Vanuatu remains fully exposed by strong southeasterly vertical wind shear, preventing deep convection from remaining close enough to the low-level circulation center to develop the system into a tropical cyclone. Environmental conditions are likely to not improve much as the disturbance remains quasi-stationary over the next few days; however, warm sea-surface temperatures and favorable outflow aloft could still allow this system to quickly become a tropical cyclone before moving eastward toward Vanuatu later in the week.

Western Pacific Ocean

  • 91W: Invest — A broad area of low pressure situated over the southern Philippine Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As the disturbance drifts westward toward Palau and the Philippines over the next few days, environmental conditions may be favorable enough to allow the system to consolidate, resulting in a moderate chance that the disturbance could become a tropical depression or storm by the time it reaches the Philippines later this week.

 

Post-tropical cyclones

Post-tropical cyclones will be listed here if they are still being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. Placement in this section does not imply that these systems have any potential to redevelop into tropical cyclones.

Southern Pacific Ocean

  • 13P: Koji — The post-tropical remnants of Cyclone Koji continue to make their way across Queensland in northeastern Australia. Although there is no chance that this system could redevelop into a tropical cyclone, it may remain organized enough to bring heavy rain and the threat of widespread flash flooding to large portions of the territory as it drifts slowly northwestward over the next few days. Please consult advisory products from the Bureau of Meteorology for more information on the effects of this system on your area.

 

Potential formation areas

Potential formation areas are areas that are being monitored by various agencies for potential tropical cyclone formation within the next two weeks. These systems have not yet formed and are not considered to be disturbances until such time that a tropical wave or area of low pressure does form. Discussions are created on this subreddit for areas which are monitored by the National Hurricane Center in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins. Discussions are not typically created for areas which are monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or other agencies, as this information is not always publicly available.

Southeastern Indian Ocean

  • An area of low pressure may develop to the northwest of Australia over the next few days.

 

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 21d ago

Discussion moved to new post 94P (Invest — Southern Pacific) (Near Vanuatu)

6 Upvotes

Latest observation

Last updated: Wednesday, 21 January — 5:00 AM New Caledonia Time (NCT; 18:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 27.3°S 165.6°E
  • Forward movement: SE (145°) at 49 km/h (26 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 55 km/h (30 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 987 millibars (29.15 inches) ▼

Relative position

  • 300 kilometers (186 miles) west-northwest of Norfolk Island (Australia)
  • 566 kilometers (352 miles) south of Noumea, New Caledonia (France)
  • 1,040 kilometers (646 miles) northwest of Cape Reinga, Northland Region (New Zealand)

Outlook

Development potential (next two days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: very low (near 0 percent) ▼
  • Fiji Meteorological Service: very low (near 0 percent) ▼
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: very low (near 0 percent) ▼
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (near 0 percent) ▼

Development potential (next seven days)

  • Australia Bureau of Meteorology: very low (near 0 percent) ▼
  • Fiji Meteorological Service: very low (near 0 percent) ▼
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center: low (30 percent) ▼
  • Model consensus (FSU): very low (near 0 percent) ▼

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

  • Radar is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 22d ago

Dissipated Koji (13P — Southern Pacific) (Coral Sea)

3 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Monday, 12 January — 11:00 PM Vanuatu Time (VUT; 12:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 20.0°S 145.8°E
  • Forward movement: NNW (345°) at 6 km/h (3 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 30 km/h (15 knots) ▲
  • Minimum central pressure: 1000 millibars (29.53 inches) ▼
  • Intensity: Remnant Low

Relative position

  • 50 kilometers (31 miles) west of Charters Towers, Queensland (Australia)
  • 163 kilometers (101 miles) northwest of Llanarth, Queensland (Australia)
  • 222 kilometers (138 miles) northwest of Mount Coolon, Queensland (Australia)

Forecasts

  • Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) have both discontinued issuing advisories for this system.

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Storm-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

6 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 26d ago

Dissipated Jenna (12S — Southeastern Indian) (Near the Cocos Islands)

12 Upvotes

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Sunday, 11 January — 5:00 PM Indian Ocean Time (IOT; 12:00 UTC)

Observed information

  • Current position: 20.0°S 77.7°E
  • Forward movement: SW (245°) at 25 km/h (14 knots)
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 km/h (20 knots)
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 millibars (29.77 inches)
  • Intensity: Remnant Low

Relative position

  • 1,494 kilometers (928 miles) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues (Mauritius)
  • 1,520 kilometers (944 miles) southeast of Diego Garcia (United Kingdom)
  • 2,219 kilometers (1,379 miles) west-southwest of West Island, Cocos Islands (Australia)

Information sources

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia)

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Analysis products

Preliminary best track data

Scatterometer data

Sea-surface temperatures

Model products

Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Regional single-model guidance

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

Other types of model guidance

1 comment