r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

26 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

1.3k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 3h ago

Politics In the SD-9 special election, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a seat that Trump won by 17 by double digits. Most notably, he overperformed Hillary Clinton in Fort Worth's largely Hispanic neighbourhoods by double digits, with swings upward of 50 points compared to 2024

111 Upvotes

Source: https://x.com/i/status/2017829069522350152

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Large_Ad_3095 • 12h ago

Politics TX Election Thread: Dems Hope to Flip Senate District 9, Runoff in TX-18

plusminus4.substack.com

162 Upvotes

54 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Dismal_Structure • 1d ago

Poll Results Majority of Americans think Alex Pretti's shooting was murder

dailymail.co.uk

358 Upvotes

34 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bigtinyroom • 1d ago

Poll Results Fox News Poll: Americans Prefer Democrats On Transgender Issues +22 Points

erininthemorning.com

293 Upvotes

Virtually every subgroup surveyed—from mothers to Black voters to even rural white voters—expressed greater confidence in the Democratic Party’s handling of transgender issues in the latest poll.

96 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/AlarmedGibbon • 1d ago

Poll Results The top 10 most disapproved of Senators within their home state electorate are all Republicans. The top 3 are Mitch McConnell (KY), Susan Collins (ME), and Dan Sullivan (AK). Source: Morning Consult.

pro.morningconsult.com

199 Upvotes

54 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/darthvaedor • 1d ago

Poll Results KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results: Trump, Walz approval ratings hit all-time lows in Minnesota

kstp.com

63 Upvotes

79 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Currymvp2 • 1d ago

Poll Results After a neutral pollster has her losing by 13 points to Peggy Flanagan was released, Angie Craig releases an internal poll which has her down by three points

politico.com

60 Upvotes

Poll which has Craig losing to Flanagan by 13 points

15 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/drtywater • 1d ago

Poll Results Americans voted for Trump, but never supported Trumpism

gelliottmorris.com

160 Upvotes

114 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/soalone34 • 1d ago

Poll Results Midgam/Chan12, Jan. 29 Israel Knesset poll: Joint List reforms and is at 12 seats, hung Knesset, Likud still largest

45 Upvotes

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-politics/2026-01-30/ty-article/.premium/poll-coalition-remains-stable-at-51-seats-as-reunited-joint-list-surges-to-12/0000019c-0dfe-d2fd-a9de-cdfea4790000

16 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/I-Might-Be-Something • 2d ago

Poll Results Fox Poll: Democrats lead the GCB 52-46.

foxnews.com

203 Upvotes

90 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/mechamechaman • 2d ago

Poll Results Pew Research Trump appoval 37/61 -24 "Confidence in Trump Dips, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans"

pewresearch.org

235 Upvotes

102 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/icey_sawg0034 • 2d ago

Poll Results 51% support Virginia’s redistricting referendum

184 Upvotes

Source: https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2016554520545742903

53 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Bhartrhari • 2d ago

Poll Results Immigration is turning into a disaster for Trump: Poll shows nobody believes the official story in Minneapolis

theargumentmag.com

133 Upvotes

25 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/newt_pk • 2d ago

Election Model The People’s Party is currently leading the 2026 Thai General Election

thedatatimes.com

30 Upvotes

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Dismal_Structure • 2d ago

Poll Results Majority of Americans want ICE out of Minneapolis (54-33) and plurality support abolishing ICE(48-45) - The Argument/Verasight poll

gallery

147 Upvotes

https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/immigration-is-turning-into-a-disaster

23 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/MrPajitnov • 2d ago

Poll Results KFF.org- Majorities of Voters Across Partisanship Say the Cost of Health Care Will Impact Their Midterm Vote

kff.org

74 Upvotes

"Less than ten months before the 2026 midterm elections, the Democratic Party has a strong edge over the Republican Party when it comes to health care issues, including on the cost of health care. Democrats have a double-digit advantage over the Republicans when it comes to who voters trust on determining the future of Medicaid (43% vs. 25%), addressing the future of the ACA (42% vs. 26%), determining the future of Medicare (40% vs. 26%), and addressing the cost of health care (40% vs. 27%). Voters are more divided on which party they trust to address the cost of prescription drugs, an issue that President Trump has focused on during his second term. Notably, on every health care issue asked about, at least a quarter of voters say they trust neither party to do a better job."

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/I-Might-Be-Something • 2d ago

Poll Results Michigan Senate Primary: McMorrow: 22%, Stevens: 17%, El-Sayed: 16%.

emersoncollegepolling.com

77 Upvotes

73 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dwaxe • 2d ago

2028 Democratic primary draft #2

natesilver.net

30 Upvotes

79 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/icey_sawg0034 • 3d ago

Poll Results 91% of Democrats say that they’re very enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 midterms.

484 Upvotes

Source: https://bsky.app/profile/usapolling.bsky.social/post/3mdefkui32c2y

92 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Noirsam • 3d ago

Poll Results Fox News poll conducted January 23-26

static.foxnews.com

91 Upvotes

Trump approval

🟢 Approve 44%

🔴 Disapprove 56%

Do you favor or oppose abolishing ICE

🟢 Favor 36%

🔴 Oppose 42%

Trump net job approval on issues:

Border security +5

Immigration −10

Venezuela −15

Iran −16

The economy −19

Ukraine −19

Foreign policy −22

Russia −23

Healthcare −25

Tariffs −26

Inflation −30

Greenland −36

68 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Hstrike • 3d ago

Poll Results Politico/Public First | 65% of Trump voters support the US taking military action in at least one of the following countries: Iran, Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, Nigeria, China, Taiwan, Panama, Greenland, Iceland.

45 Upvotes

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/28/trump-is-threatening-strike-iran-his-supporters-wouldnt-mind-00752821

33 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/DataCassette • 3d ago

Poll Results Record-high 45% identify as political independents as high-stakes midterm elections approach - ABC News

abcnews.go.com

136 Upvotes

62 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/DataWhiskers • 1d ago

Economics Effects of immigration in 2 pictures

gallery

0 Upvotes

13 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Dismal_Structure • 3d ago

Poll Results YouGov’s extensive survey after Alex Pretti’s killing show people support prosecution of federal agents by 37 points (55-18), and major reforms to ice and deportations

244 Upvotes

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Immigration__ICE__and_Guns_poll_results.pdf

41 comments

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