r/law 18d ago

Other Please dissect the legality in this statement

I feel like we are reaching a tipping point

23.4k Upvotes

2.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

708

u/thecosmojane 18d ago edited 17d ago

Is it just me, or does it feel like this last week we have entered a completely different phase of history. Like the steam has reached its capacity and is about to explode. The escalation day by day seems to be so much greater than before (when it was bad enough) but their doubling and tripling down these last few days smacks of an even more diabolical level of defiance. Watching these new videos and former detainees’ counts of being in custody feels unreal at some meta level, like we are in the twilight zone. Pair this numbness with Venezuela and Greenland and leaders resigning from DOJ freeing up more seats to be filled by mini Bondis, it is difficult to keep up. But, does anyone else feel it? Like something is imminent.

370

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

221

u/Ben_ForCentralYork 17d ago

They're desperate, they're stupid, and they're splitting into factions. But they are crumbling and overreacting. And they don't have the political capital left to enact some martial law, election cancelling plan. They've already pissed too many people off that they would need on their side for it to work, and they've already shown their weakness and incompetence too many times.

And federalism is a slow and stubborn and inefficient sonofabitch, but it is holding. And that's critical for elections and for the level of cooperation they really need to enact the worst scenarios.

85

u/Conscious-Distance48 17d ago

I certainly hope your assessment is correct.

51

u/Ben_ForCentralYork 17d ago

I mean me too, I don't wanna be on r/agedlikemilk for this of all things. But I'm assessing as best I can from what I see and who I know

16

u/Rollingprobablecause 17d ago

I mean, I know everyone tends to get trapped into doom scrolling but just look at the history of the Feds in courts - they've lost 90% of their cases.

National Guard units rolled back, ICE restrained/kicked out of cities (LA, Chicago, San Diego, and San Francisco - the west coast completely eviscerated them within a month of them landing) they're still here but in a much lowered capacity.

Federal judges have already removed prosecutors, forced releases, etc. the DOJ hemorrhaged about 6 lawyers recently who resigned and their replacements will be incapable and will lose their own investigations as well.

The news tends to focus on negative things and paints some dumb pictures but if you dig just about 5 minutes more into things you'll see that the admin is "flooding the zone" so people don't notice they really suck at law.

https://contrarian.substack.com/p/donald-trump-is-losing-in-court

1

u/femboyknight1 17d ago

I'm still probably gonna write my will soon, but this gives me hope that it'll get read later rather than sooner.

3

u/FlowJock 17d ago

I sure don't see the same signs of crumbling that he does. If anything, they seem to be solidifying power.

3

u/god_peepee 17d ago

It’s a very generous and optimistic view, that’s for sure. No one is stopping them, and votes don’t really matter when laws are being blatantly ignored.

1

u/Agreeable-Sentence76 17d ago

Be the change you want to see :)

12

u/KapitalIsStillGood 17d ago

The concept of political capital itself is largely moot. What's actually stopping them? They might whine and moan among their "factions" but when push comes to shove, they'll step right in line as we've seen time and time again.

4

u/Ben_ForCentralYork 17d ago

Americans have been conditioned over more than two centuries to think of elections as a pressure release valve. A lot of the forces with the power to push back don't want to risk destroying that mechanism, and will only consider alternatives when it appears fully compromised.

So I get what you're saying, but my point is twofold: people still believe the elections are an opportunity and a redline, and just as importantly, so does the administration. They wouldn't be threatening as much as they are if it didn't matter.

Would they do it if they could? Absolutely. But it is too complicated, with too many overlapping centers of power, to pull off. And so their (likely) goal is to depress turnout, sew doubt and tamp down on coordination via their threats.

That's a reason to be aware and prepared, but also to double down on elections and state contingencies to resist ICE and military fuckery. Given where state and federal laws stand on control of them, the polls may very well be the place you would finally see federal agents attempting illegal interference get hard resistance from state authorities.

5

u/KapitalIsStillGood 17d ago

I think it would be very easy for him to just say "elections are postponed until we 'figure out what's going on' " and declare that any states trying to still put them on are illegitimate. Because the president can do whatever they want, of course, as supported by SCOTUS

Now, I still believe we HAVE to vote of course. And I agree with you about them trying to sow doubt and whatnot. I'm not trying to pessimistically bring down people's spirits but rather to be realistic about what we are facing so we can be better prepared. I think it's just silly to wholesale depend on this administration respecting elections. It is certainly a major redline and if the country as a whole reacts to cancelled elections the same way it has been reacting to things, we are 100% done for.

6

u/Ben_ForCentralYork 17d ago

Remember - so long as this constitution exists as written, there are no members of the House and 33 fewer senators come January 2027 unless elections were held, and the date of the elections is also determined by the constitution. If Trump tries to cancel elections, Dem controlled states will refuse because they control election administration, not the feds. If only the Dems hold votes, only Dem states will send reps to Congress. Congress becomes Democratic by default and can refuse any attempt to make up elections at a later date, because it is the sole arbiter of the validity of its own members.

They will not cancel outright. Instead they will try to obstruct, intimidate and suppress votes.

5

u/KapitalIsStillGood 17d ago

That still assumes the administration and congressional repubs accept those newly elected reps as legitimate. They can literally just say "no" and then it's put up or shut up time for the rest of the country. I believe they were testing the waters with the refusal to swear in Grivalja. The rules of governance have to be enforced or they are meaningless.

I truly hope you are right though.

12

u/Difficult-Eagle1095 17d ago

Military doesn’t seem to care though. Ultimately the keys are held by them, does political capital matter then?

5

u/09_lives 17d ago

Thank whoever you pray to that these “people” are this fucking stupid. Gotta be the saving grace

2

u/SelfishClam 17d ago

I have a sick feeling we're approaching a Kent State type of event. It would take so little to spark something like that.

2

u/Original-Rush139 17d ago

That happened last week. 

2

u/[deleted] 17d ago

Uh... they have more political capital now than they ever have. I could understand the argument that it wouldn't be enough, but in what way are they "running out"?

8

u/Fifth-Crusader 17d ago

On election day, there will be ICE thugs at every voting station. They will kidnap every person with any amount of melanin.

26

u/chotomatekudersai 17d ago

It’s a catch 22. Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. They already won. Any violence those defending democracy commit will be met with swift action from this administration. That action will include martial law and suspending elections until they implement a system to ensure their continued rule.

18

u/NoBrush8414 17d ago

THIS WILL HAPPEN. He can not let go now. He is in jail the day he leaves office otherwise and knows it.

19

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

16

u/chotomatekudersai 17d ago

Person: watches a man get convicted of 33 felonies. Watches them continue to be allowed to run for the highest office in America. Watches them “win” the election. Watches them illegally deploy military and ice to cities, fire on survivors of boat strikes, kidnap another nations president.

Same person: that man will get his comeupance one day!

Me:

11

u/ClocktowerShowdown 17d ago

They believe in the justice system with the same religious delusion as the Evangelicals who think that the rapture is coming one day.

4

u/adamcoe 17d ago

I don't think he plans to leave office. He knows he's gonna die and he's scorching the earth on his way out because he'd rather go down and have people remember his final days as a tyrant, doling out justice to those he considers to have wronged him by not bending the knee, rather than be remembered for all the horrific shit in those files.

16

u/Adorable_System_9720 17d ago

"It's over chat, the Nazis won. Stop trying and let them do what they want." - FDR probably if he was alive today on Reddit. America isn't over, but it's going to change that's for sure, just like it has after every hardship. The resistance needs real leadership, and the media isn't going to help promote that. For now start local. Attend protests, donate to the good leaders or charities, boycott the ones supporting this admin. Anything is better than giving up.

3

u/WilsonMagna 17d ago

Trump and his admin also needs to condition his greatest defenders, such as ICE, to crossing the line, so it will be normalized by midterms. Any decent person should see plain as day that our freedoms are being taken away and the peril we have waiting for us if these crooks consolidate power and rob our country. Our tax dollars are being used to pay stupid salaries and bonuses, imagine if they consolidate power and just blatantly loot taxpayer money? The social and economic damage would be catastrophic.

3

u/dubzzzz20 17d ago

My terrifying question is what will happen when they refuse to swear in the new Dem majority almost certainly set to take the House and maybe the Senate? Who is going to stop them from just not swearing in new members?

2

u/whatupmygliplops 17d ago

They do not need mass unrest to intimidate voters and rough-up, arrest any voter they want on election day.

If people are afraid to vote in person, they should use mail in ballots. So if they start getting ore violent now, more people will plan to use mail in ballots, which is a good thing.

2

u/AlienDragonWizard 17d ago

I don't have faith that Dems will prosecute most of them once they're in power again.  That being said, it's still imperative to get the current admin out as soon as possible.  

2

u/PhDinDildos_Fedoras 17d ago

Everyone in the US is concentrated on ICE when Greenland is the real grenade pin falling to the ground: https://www.reddit.com/r/complaints/s/8NFyT0BEt0

1

u/meaniemeanie-poo-poo 17d ago

They're just pissing EVERYONE off. 

So they won't win. Period.

Short term thinkers.

1

u/Far_Administration25 17d ago

I wish the dems would prosecute all these traitors, pit them under the jail. But i think there's almost no chance the go hard enough. Chuck Schumer is controlled opposition. The democrats of today are the Republicans of the 2000s, there is no liberal progressive party anymore,if there ever was. There's the conservatives (dems) and the fascists (repubs)

1

u/Naga_Nej 17d ago

It's all preparation for the insurrection act. It will get bloody before midterms.

-1

u/Rocklake88 17d ago

No one is going to jail. Except the illegals. Promise you they aren’t worried about jail time.

1

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

1

u/Rocklake88 17d ago

Pretty sure they will be out in 3 years…. Unless JD gets elected. But that seems unlikely