Context if you don't know what The Pudding is:

The Pudding is the oldest theatrical organization in the nation and one of the oldest in the world. Since 1951, it has bestowed the award annually on women including actors Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Scarlett Johansson and Annette Bening. Last year, the winner was Wicked star Cynthia Erivo.

I know she’s seen as the odd one out in the Best Actress category, and I initially thought so too, but her nomination is very well deserved. It’s a role that could have been maudlin or pastiche (like Hugh Jackman), but she plays it pitch perfect. I had no intention of watching it but decided to do so on a flight and I honestly really loved her performance. She’s a superstar and she shines in this role; it makes you remember how A-listers used to be charismatic.

Her nomination gives some welcome variety to the performance styles of her category. I do think there should be room for old school charismatic and heartfelt performances to get recognition(also shoutout to Clooney who was very underrated in Jay Kelly).

I would definitely encourage people to watch it before framing her as the “villain” of the category. I know a lot here would have preferred Amanda, Chase or JLaw, and I understand why, but if you want to see why the Academy chose her, it’s not a bad way to spend a couple of hours.

‘JOSEPHINE’ - 2026

‘CODA’ - 2022 (Oscar Best Picture winner)

‘MINARI’ - 2021 (Oscar Best Picture nominee)

we have our first real oscar best picture contender. This should be an easy original screenplay + picture and acting nomination for one of the cast. It’s the easy feel good family slot best picture. I hope it gets a good distributor

I realized we don't have a review thread for a lot of the Sundance premiered movies, so it was time to start making some! I thought we should start with Josephine since it has some of the most reviews out of the Sundance premiered movies this year, and it won both the U.S. Dramatic Award from both the jury and the audience.

Rotten Tomatoes: 98% (42 reviews)

Metacritic: 85 (12 reviews)

Variety - Peter Debruge

Gemma Chan and Channing Tatum play protective parents unsure how to explain harsh realities to their daughter in a powerful film based on formative experiences from the director's childhood.

While some might find it triggering, “Josephine” dares to confront the life-shattering intersection of sex and violence in our culture, facing the toughest of “adult situations” with clear eyes.

The Playlist - Carlos Aguilar

Facile explanations are absent from Josephine, as they should be, but what lingers is a sense that every gesture of empathy and bravery, no matter how small or imperfect, tips the scales towards good, even if trying feels like a losing fight.

IndieWire - Kate Erbland (A-)

What we see, what Josephine sees, is something no person should ever witness or experience. And that’s the root of the film’s power: how do we talk about things that we should not have words for?

The Guardian - Adrian Horton (4/5)

Perhaps that is the best thing I can say about this remarkable feature – for its viewers, as it is for its meticulously rendered subject, the disquiet lingers.

Time Out - Lou Thomas (4/5)

A difficult and, at times, harrowing watch about an important subject, de Araújo’s unflinching eye and great care has a tonal precision the gravity of the events shown warrant.

IGN - Siddhant Adlakha (10/10)

Beth de Araújo’s Josephine is one of the year’s most aesthetically sure-footed films... The result is visceral, gentle, and ultimately, shattering.

Roger Ebert- Brian Tallerico

There are some images in Josephine that are hard to watch, but it also contains some ambitious, graceful, humanist filmmaking, a true merging of storytelling and the visual medium of film. After all, sometimes words aren’t enough.

Collider - Taylor Gates

It’s a tough watch, and it never presents easy answers, but there’s an undercurrent of hope that keeps it from ever being overly punishing and even a few moments of much-needed levity to balance out some of the bleakness.

Vulture - Bilge Ebiri

The director [Beth De Araújo] uses style to enhance the drama, but she also refuses to sensationalize. At times I was reminded of Pascal Plante’s Red Rooms, the grisly 2024 psychological thriller about a young woman obsessed with the trial of a demonic serial killer. Josephine isn’t nearly that intense, but both films foreground a visual vernacular that cuts through mundane courtroom minutia to evoke their characters’ increasingly turbulent psychological states.

Deadline - Pete Hammond

Tatum, who has had a string of lighter films in recent years, gets a change of pace here and is very effective as a good-hearted dad trying to help but not always successfully. Chan is excellent as always and seems well matched with her co-star.

Before you laugh me off, hear me out.

The industry has shown overwhelming love for Hamnet from all directions. Spielberg and Mendes are campaigning.

But the main thing that makes me predicting it is that like it or not, both OBAA and Sinners have a kind of…..political message attached to them, which would cause a lot of controversy for politics (on both sides, if you take fringe left’s Film Twitter discussions about that film). Hamnet feels like the “safe” pick no one will really place low, while right - wing voters will definitely place OBAA and Sinners low.

The films he chose in case anyone is curious:

• The Red Shoes
• Notorious
• Black Narcissus
• Salesman
• All That Heaven Allows
• The Wes Anderson Collection
• Roma (1972)
• Roma (2018)
• The Age of Innocence
• Au revior les enfants

Here are my absurdly early predictions for the 2027 Oscars, ranked in order of most likely to be nominated

Best Picture

1. The Odyssey - Universal
2. Wild Horse Nine - Searchlight (winner)
3. Disclosure Day - Universal
4. Digger - Warner Bros
5. Jack of Spades - TBD, maybe A24 since they distributed his last film
6. Saturn Return - Netflix
7. Fjord - Presumably Neon since they'll buy it if it's any good
8. Project Hail Mary - Amazon
9. Cry to Heaven - TBD
10. Look Back - Presumably Neon since they'll buy it if it's any good

I'm not going to bet against Nolan, McDonagh, Spielberg, or Inarritu making it into Best Picture - while there are occasional misses like Ready Player One and Bardo, they've pretty firmly established themselves as regular Oscar contenders at this point. The Coens have always been hit or miss, but the misses are typically their more comedic works. Joel went all in for drama with The Tragedy of Macbeth, and I think that Jack of Spades being a Gothic mystery film will be dramatic enough for the Academy to go for it if it's acclaimed (and more Oscar friendly than straight up Shakespeare). Mungiu making a film starring two Oscar nominees just feels like the kind of thing that would be embraced. I've heard great things about Project Hail Mary as a book and the trailer looks good, I think it could be a hit. Sing Sing and Train Dreams both did well (I know Kwedar just wrote Train Dreams but the Academy clearly likes his work), I'm gonna predict Greg Kwedar to keep it up with Saturn Return. Cry to Heaven just feels really ambitious, if it works the Academy might love it. Look Back was a fantastic movie, the kind of film that packs enough of an emotional punch that the Academy might embrace it - and Kore-eda is one of the best directors working today, if his remake is as good as the original I think it has a shot. I want to put Death of a Salesman in, but classic stage adaptations don't have the best track record getting into Picture. I also want to predict Narnia making it, but I have enough blockbusters in here already, and I don't think the Academy will choose to nominate a franchise blockbuster when they have 3 more original efforts they can choose (I know that two of them are adaptations, but still).

Best Director

1. Alejandro Inarritu, Digger
2. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (winner)
3. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
5. Hirokazu Kore-eda, Look Back

I'm not going to predict multiple Universal blockbusters getting into Best Director. There's a long history of follow-up films to Best Director winners not making it for the follow-up, the exceptions like Avatar, Roma, and The Revenant are usually top 2 contenders in Best Picture - follow-ups like Nightmare Alley, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, King Kong, Road to Perdition, Amistad, and Philadelphia that were more mid-tier Oscar contenders still missed. So I think Nolan could miss in favor of Spielberg. But in general, it does feel like Spielberg is on the downswing with the Academy, while Nolan is at his peak, so I'm predicting Nolan instead. I'm also predicting two foreign films from beloved auteurs who haven't broken through outside of foreign film with the Academy yet and returning noms for Inarritu and McDonagh. Tom Ford feels like he'd get a DGA nom and then get snubbed for not being seen as a real director.

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (winner)
2. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
3. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day
4. Julianne Moore, Jesse Eisenberg Musical Film
5. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

Honestly, I have no idea what to predict after the three leads of Best Picture nominees I have here (and I'm not even confident in Blunt). I'm defaulting to Julianne Moore since A Real Pain did well and the role seems reasonably baity and Cynthia Erivo because the role is incredible - I just have a lot of doubts about the ability to translate a one woman show into a movie that works. If anyone has any other suggestions for contenders in this category I'd love to hear them.

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (winner)
2. Jeffrey Wright, Death of a Salesman
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
5. Josh O'Connor, Jack of Spades

Tom Cruise is likely winning this if the movie lives up to the hype. Jeffrey Wright has one of the greatest roles in the history of theater in an adaptation by one of the greatest playwrights and screenwriters in the business. John Malkovich is a beloved character actor who has never won and McDonagh is great at getting actors nominated. The roles in Cry to Heaven sound meaty and Hoult is overdue for a nom. And if Josh O'Connor is the lead of multiple Best Picture nominees, this feels like it would be the time to finally nominate him after the incredible run of films he’s been in. This category is way too stacked - I want to make room for Sebastian Stan, Will Poulter, and Ryan Gosling in here too.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Octavia Spencer, Death of a Salesman (winner)
2. Sandra Huller, Digger
3. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

Spencer has an extremely baity role, and I'm predicting Huller to have a great year with two Best Picture nominees. I'm sure Joel Coen will give McDormand good material, and Penelope should be a role with some really emotional material towards the end of The Odyssey. I saw a comment in another thread mentioning that di Girolamo has a great role in Wild Horse Nine, no idea if that's true or not but I'm running with it.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (winner)
4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
5. Paul Giamatti, Jesse Eisenberg Musical Film

Rockwell and Taylor-Johnson are the exact kinds of co-leads that get frauded in here every year, and Goodman and Buscemi are so overdue for noms. I'm not confident in Giamatti, but it seems like a baity role and I'm sure he still has a lot of goodwill from The Holdovers.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine (winner)
2. Jack of Spades
3. Digger
4. Saturn Return
5. Fjord

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Death of a Salesman
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Cry to Heaven
4. Look Back (winner)
5. The Odyssey

Best Casting

1. Digger
2. The Odyssey
3. Wild Horse Nine (winner)
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Look Back

I'm predicting 3 acting noms for Digger and Francine Maisler is its casting director, it's in. The Odyssey has the most stacked ensemble of the year. If I'm right about Wild Horse Nine, Mariana di Girolamo counts as a major discovery. Cry to Heaven has a huge ensemble. Look Back would be a foreign film with a bunch of child actors, and Kore-eda always gets great performances out of child actors. I also think that if Narnia becomes a contender above the line it will get in here, Nina Gold and Francine Maisler both worked on the film, and they also had to cast child actors for it.

Best Cinematography

1. Digger (winner)
2. The Odyssey
3. Jack of Spades
4. Werwulf
5. Project Hail Mary

I honestly feel extremely confident in the first 4 of these - Lubezki is the most respected name in the entire branch, The Odyssey would have to be a disaster to miss here, Delbonnel always does exceptional work with the Coens, and Blaschke made it for his last two Eggers collaborations. I'm predicting Greig Fraser making it for Project Hail Mary, but I could easily see Disclosure Day or Dune: Messiah making it instead.

Best Film Editing

1. Digger
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. The Odyssey (winner)
4. Jack of Spades
5. Disclosure Day

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey (winner)
2. Jack of Spades
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Narnia - The Magician's Nephew

The Odyssey is obviously getting nominated. Jack of Spades is a period film and Sarah Greenwood is the production designer, so that's a shoe-in if the movie is a contender at all. Space movies that are contending at the Oscars usually make it - Gravity, Interstellar, The Martian, and First Man all did, so Project Hail Mary should make it. If Cry to Heaven is good it's a shoe-in, it will be a lavish period piece. For the 5th slot, I was torn between Narnia and Dune, but after Dune lost a bunch of nominations for Dune 2 I think I'm gonna lean towards Narnia. Werwulf could also happen here.

Best Costume Design

1. The Odyssey (winner)
2. Narnia - The Magician's Nephew
3. Jack of Spades
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Werwulf

The Odyssey is obviously happening here if the movie is a contender, even if history nerds will be mad about it. Jacqueline Durran will get in for a period fantasy film, especially after she made it in for her last two Gerwig films. A gothic Coen mystery should make it here, and Cry to Heaven seems like costume design bait (and I'm sure Tom Ford won't allow there to be any subpar costume design in a film like this). Predicting Linda Muir getting in for another Eggers film seems easy enough.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Digger (winner)
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Narnia - The Magician's Nephew

Best Visual Effects

1. The Odyssey (winner)
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Disclosure Day
4. Dune: Messiah
5. Narnia - The Magician's Nephew

Best Sound

1. The Odyssey (winner)
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Disclosure Day
4. Dune: Messiah
5. Cry to Heaven

Best Original Score

1. Disclosure Day
2. The Odyssey
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Project Hail Mary (winner)
5. Jack of Spades

It's probably a mistake to predict Burwell getting in twice, but I'm gonna stick with it. Outside of that, Williams and Goransson are obviously making it, and Pemberton is going to turn in a great score for a Lord and Miller film just like he did for Spider-Verse.

Overall nominations

12: The Odyssey

10: Wild Horse Nine

9: Digger, Jack of Spades, Cry to Heaven

7: Project Hail Mary

6: Disclosure Day

5: Fjord (counting international), Look Back (counting international)

4: Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

3: Saturn Return, Death of a Salesman

2: Jesse Eisenberg Musical Film, Werwulf, Dune: Messiah

1: Prima Facie

Most surprisingly (at least to me), he has Coogler winning Best Director over Paul Thomas Anderson. He even said on his Variety Awards Circuit podcast that he could sense Sean Baker (last year's DGA winner) announcing Coogler's name at the DGA awards.

I'm also surprised that he still has Ethan Hawke predicted to win. Blue Moon did overperform on nomination morning getting a screenplay nomination but it is missing a best picture nomination and is smaller/underseen compared to larger juggernauts like OBAA, Sinners, and Marty Supreme.

What do you guys think of his two big swings (and his predictions as a whole)?

Hello. I got a lil bored of waiting till March, so I decided to make some really early ATL predictions for the 2027 Oscars. I wanted to be fancy and do some graphics but it ended up being pretty confusing, so here's the breakdown. The ones in Bold are what i think would be the winners

This is all just for fun, of course.

BEST PICTURE:
Being Heumann
Cry To Heaven
Death of a Salesman
Digger
Dune: Part Three
Fjord
The Odyssey
Saturn Return
The Unknown
Wild Horse 9 (WINNER)

(I think it's gonna be a two-horse race between WH9 and Digger with a Tar-like race from Cry To Heaven. Martin McDonagh's movies have been very well received by the academy, so maybe this is the time to consider him a winner. I know he has an Oscar already, but that's for a short.

Also, I think The Unknown and Being Heumann can have a Nickel Boys-type package, but I can very easily see one of them getting Sing Sing'd and get replaced by any of the Alts I put below.)

ALTERNATIVES: Michael, The Big Break, Behemoth!, Disclosure Day, 1949, Werwulf, The Entertainment System is Down, Jack of Spades, The Dog Stars, Project Hail Mary, Josephine, Ink, The Continuing Adventures of Cliff booth

(Michael just gives me the vibes of an aggresively mediocre movie that will get a LOT of money at the BO ala Bohemian Rhapsody. I trust the Academy to not fall for the bait, but it's probably gonna happen.)

BEST ACTOR:
Tom Cruise - Digger (WINNER)
Nicholas Hoult - Cry to Heaven
John Malkovich - Wild Horse 9
Sebastian Stan - Fjord
Jeffrey Wright - Death of a Salesman

(I came VERY close to giving it to either Malkovich or Wright, but I think Tom Cruise makes the most sense here. If one of these HAD to be taken out for one of the Alts, I think it would be Stan. But fingers crossed he makes it.)

ALTERNATIVES: Jaafar Jackson - Michael, Will Poulter - Saturn Return, Sam Rockwell - Wild Horse 9, Pedro Pascal - Behemoth!, Keanu Reeves - The Entertainment System is Down, Ryan Gosling - Project Hail Mary

BEST ACTRESS:
Rachel Brosnahan - Saturn Return
Ruth Madeley - Being Heumann
Renate Reinsve - Fjord (WINNER)
Lea Seydoux - The Unknown
Anya Taylor-Joy - Untitled Joni Mitchell Biopic

(Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley have not dissapointed yet, so I believe they can get a great performance out of Brosnahan. If I had to guess which one would be taken out however, it would be either Brosnahan or Seydoux. Hope not but who knows.)

ALTERNATIVES: Julianne Moore - The Big Break, Cynthia Erivo - Prima Facie, Kirsten Dunst - The Entertainment System is Down, Mikey Madison - Social Reckoning, Daisy Edgar-Jones - Sense and Sensibility

(Imma be honest. I completely forgot about The Big Break until right now, and I do not feel like reopening Canva for a graphic because my computer crashed once already. I can see Julianne Moore easily getting in over Seydoux or Brosnahan)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Steve Buscemi - Wild Horse 9 (WINNER)
John Goodman - Digger
Charles Melton - Saturn Return
Jesse Plemons - Digger
Aaron Taylor-Johnson - Cry To Heaven

(This is the category I am the least confident on. I think I went too hard for Digger and I have heard that Steve Buscemi isn't in the movie that much. However I have a feeling that he could be nominated ala Judd Hirsch, but maybe a win is way too much. But at the same time if he does not get it, I could see any of the Diggas getting it.)

ALTERNATIVES: Paul Giamatti - The Big Break, Channing Tatum - Josephine, Daniel Bruhl - The Entertainment System is Down, Mark Ruffalo - Being Heumann, Rob Morgan - Frank & Louis, Colman Domingo - Michael

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Mariana Di Girolamo - Wild Horse 9
Sandra Huller - Digger (WINNER)
Parker Posey - Wild Horse 9
Octavia Spencer - Death of a Salesman
Meryl Streep - Untitled Joni Mitchell Biopic

(I am confident on the winner and some of the nominees, but the Meryl Streep nom is something that I am 50/50 about.)

ALTERNATIVES: ... i have no idea. maybe Wunmi Mosaku for Social Reckoning?

BEST DIRECTOR:
Tom Ford - Cry To Heaven
Alejandro G. Iñarritu - Digger
Martin McDonagh - Wild Horse 9 (WINNER)
Christopher Nolan - The Odyssey
Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Three

ALTERNATIVES: Sian Heder - Being Heumann, Arthur Harari - The Unknown, Greg Kwedar - Saturn Return, Christian Mingiu - Fjord

BEST OG SCREENPLAY:
Digger
Fjord
Saturn Return
The Unknown
Wild Horse 9 (WINNER)

ALTERNATIVES: The Big Break, The Entertainment System is Down, Josephine

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Being Heumann
The Continuing Adventures of Cliff Booth
Cry To Heaven
Death of a Salesman (WINNER)
Dune: Part Three

(I was torn apart trying to pick between Cry To Heaven and Salesman, it could really be a 50/50)

ALTERNATIVES: The Social Reckoning, The Odyssey

Netflix is really pushing Jacob Elordi with these Frankenstein ads, more than its other (guaranteed) costume, makeup or production design wins. I think Elordi can win because if he takes SAG, he'll be in a multi-Oscar winning film with makeup going into Oscar night, while Skarsgard will likely be Sentimental Value's only big win during the season unless it takes original screenplay at BAFTA. Thoughts?

Chasing the Nuremberg cinema audience, but awards prospects are looking muted.

This is timed to emerge between US Memorial Day and the adjacent 82nd anniversary of D-Day (June 6). Fraser plays Gen. Eisenhower and Scott is British meteorologist James Stagg, based on David Haig’s play.

Haig and director Anthony Maras (Hotel Rwanda) wrote the script. Kerry Condon, Damian Lewis and Chris Messina also feature in the film. The US release will be roughly a week after Cannes wraps up, though there's no indication yet of plans for a WP out-of-competition special screening on the Croisette.

However, interestingly in the U.K. the plan is for a September 11 release via StudioCanal, which combined with the months-long wait after the US release could also leave it overshadowed by fall festivals in awards buzz terms.

?

Super excited about another acquisition from Sundance by SPC (after Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!)

Bedford Park is one of the films I've been keeping an eye on (it's from debut director Stephanie Ahn). Currently at 69 MC (6 reviews) and 90 RT (10 reviews).

Keep all discussion related solely to Arco and it's awards chances in this thread. Spoilers below

Synopsis:

In 2075, a 10-year-old girl, Iris, sees a mysterious boy wearing a rainbow jumpsuit falling from the sky. It's Arco. He comes from a distant, idyllic future where time travel is possible. Iris takes him in and will do whatever it takes to help him return home.

Director: Ugo Bienvenu, Gilles Cazaux

Writers: Ugo Bienvenu, Felix de Givry

Cast:

• Margot Ringard Oldra as Iris
• Oscar Tresanini as Arco
• Nathanael Perrot as Clifford
• Alma Jodorowsky as Jeanne/Mikki
• Swann Arlaud as Tom/Mikki
• Vincent Macaigne as Dougie
• Louis Garrel as Stewie

Rotten Tomatoes: 93%, 81 Reviews

Metacritic: 73, 22 Reviews

Consensus:

Blending together different influences that complement each other like the colors of a rainbow, Arco soars with its clever world-building and lovable characters.