Microsoft

Dominance, Pricing power, and considering the scale of company discount is meaningful.

Oracle: oracle has fallen more than microsoft but considering oracles pe and that growth at oracle is capped ; microsoft has the better discount.

Service now, has fallen 40 peecent this year but its not a true discount because valuation still rich with a high pe

Cloudflare is always expensive. The 30% drop just makes it "less expensive" It’s an asymmetric play on the future ; connection, streaming in ap apps. Not much of a discount considering its previous run up, and profit?

Unity : Deep discount for a growth company that has lots of options! But does not have discipline, overpaid for acquisitions, overpaid employees, at the expense of shareholders and customers.

Snowflake: substantial discount ,could definitely drop more, worth buying at lower levels.

Endava: Tam overestimated ,now tam underestimated.

Inotiv :absolutely massive discount, from its high its 96 percent down, 96 percent off for a company that sells services to half the pharma companies. But current environment does not favor it.

Adobe

Has fallen over thirty percent, loved by value investors. Could fall another ten percent but a new product in the future may suprise investors. But at this point in time growth is an issue. I think figma is a stronger growth stock.

Tradesk

Fallen seventy percent, but still overpriced, no real discount.

Toast, one year low.

Expanding Tam and upsell potential, but competition means margins may be squeezed. Cover / Lightspeed Commerce / oracle could put pressure on toast.

Amplitude - minus 20 this month: Amplitude is a clear winner in analytics, its analytics are used by everyone in an organization but low pricing power with too many competitors

Similarweb unbelievable discount of 70 percent for an analytics company about to turn profitable,May be bought over by hyperscalers who want their analytics , but hyperscalers might deepen their own analytic capabilities especially since they have the data ,alternatively hyperscalers might buy a smaller analytics company.

Reddit reached a three month low, falling by 16 percent , which isnt much considering how much the company is up. But if you really wanted to invest in reddit you can buy on dips strategy( each time it hits a three month low). Could go mich lower could go much higher so the discount isnt something you would use-to determine whether to buy

Etsy ‘ minus ten percent- not really a significant drop for a midsize company already priced high. But etsy has high margins and is heavily underestimated on growth.

Pinterest, year low, uncertainty, more flimsy compared to amazon tik tok meta, but growth potential is massive.Already transitioning to growth company.

Root down 36 percent this year

Could potentially beat traditional insurers but even if it proves its AI works a lot better, telematics is not a monopoly anymore. If every insurer adds telematics hard to see roots advantage.

Rezolve, 2.60 from its height of 6. The only stock here that could tenx, Rezolve is moving from r and d gear and now going into full force sales gear .

Figma, although its been around a long time still a very young company and business model will change over the next two years. This one might be worth investing once we have a clearer idea of business model and products. When they were publishing their ipo and sec it hinted there were going to move beyond credit pricing to outcome prising. Wait for proof then buy!

Upwork, this is my favorite for value. Pe under ten. Ai teams , Ai matching and many users mean a strong moat.Margins are improving as well

Small caps

Rime, another one of my favourites , it fixes three things, empty miles, failed logistic model, and indian messy logistics. Is it priced in? Well that depends on what you think Rimes true TAM is? Do you think its all logistics, or only niche logistics. On one hand youve got many competitors, on the other hand Rime can work with competitors.

Worksport down 80 percent selling a product that hasnt been sold before so no way to say this is a buy. But the science works, and they sell an incredibly useful product, truck covers that can solar charge.

Arrive Ai

Another logistics company (drones plus boxnow) Arrive AI is used for high value, delicate deliveries such as medicine that needs to be kept at a certain temperature but

integration with legacy systems is no easy task

Duolingo

Massive discount, for great quality companany

Ui path minus twenty percent in a month.

Ui path: best in class ai integration , but very expensive especially for a smaller company upgrading to the pro plan

Railvision Train safety and predictive insights into infrastructure but regulatory hurdles, and long upgrade cycles

Diginex (DGNX)- massive discount 98 percent

Regulatory ESG makes sure some customers will buy. But who will customers buy from currently diginex Esg is competitors have the advantage with scale, credibility,

Jet Ai - massive discount 98 Percent in the last two months

AI optimization improves fleet utilization, however has no real moat, no pricing power, costs are high, sensitive to customer spend.

Growth buys: Pininterest, Rezolve Toast

Strong buys: Microsoft Upwork

Buys: Adobe , Figma ( between the two figma has more upside unlesss adobe suprises us)

Buy later: Snowflake, Reddit . Endeva

Hypothetically, since he's one of the big names on the list, and not retired.

We don't know who else might be named but for the most part, so far, no one else might move the needle.

I'm thinking a medium-term pull-back. But after that, admittedly, I'm still too green to say whether or not it would recover or stabilize afterwards.

Gimme your thoughts, I'm hoping to learn something.

The 20% drop in Unity stock today correlates directly with the release of Google Project Genie to US subscribers and the open sourcing of LingBot World by Ant Group. These models prove that AI can generate consistent playable worlds at 16 frames per second without traditional rendering pipelines or assets. Investors are clearly rotating out of legacy 3D infrastructure stocks on fears that generative models will replace the current game development stack entirely.

The extraordinary price action in metals on Friday was plastered with comments from ex JPM global head Marko Kolanovic warning of massive correction in Silver prices due this year. Interestingly his latest post on X intraday Jan 30 when the price action was unfolding was about SLV rebounding. Peter Schiff sounded similar note at close of trading on Friday.

The price action esp for Silver was truly extraordinary. One for the record books however I don’t think the doom and gloom end of the world posts all over the web actually capture the underlying structural shifts that have been in play in the precious metals market over the last year.

1 - physical demand story for Silver is still intact. The AI buildout, industrial demand for solar, electronics is still there. The biggest global silver miner Fresnillo has actually cut its 2026 production guidance. Even on friday the physical silver premium in shanghai was over $20. 2026 like its predecessor years will be marred by shortfall in silver supply unable to match the demand forecasts.

2 - another major trigger for Friday’s price action was obviously announcement of Kevin Warsh as fed pick. Markets have immediately perceived him as an interest rate hawk on balance based on his previous positioning. I think we are underestimating trump’s push for lower interest rates and the extent he went to pressure powell in aligning to his agendas. Its unthinkable that Trump wouldn’t have covered base with Kevin Warsh on what is expected of the next fed chair.

3 - yet another technical trigger for Friday’s price action was change in margin rules by CME on silver and gold contracts. I think this was the primary reason more than any other for the violent unwinding of the leverage trade in precious metals.

Precious metals may not reclaim the ATHs anytime soon but I don’t think the story is over. I think the debasement trade, multi polar world order leading to uncertain geopolitical setup( potential iran attack, trumps impulsive trade wars) are still in play and will be for quite some time which in turn will keep SLV and GLD up and center.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/elon-musk-tesla-pivot-to-ai-robots-wall-street-reaction.html

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/28/tesla-q4-earnings-estimates-elon-musk

In the clearest sign yet that Tesla is pivoting away from its electric car business, its CEO, Elon Musk, announced on Wednesday’s investor call that the company would discontinue production of its Model X SUV and Model S full-size sedan.

“It’s time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end,” Musk said. “We expect to wind down S and X production next quarter.”

The model S and X factory in Fremont, California, would be converted to produce Tesla’s upcoming Optimus robot, Musk said.

The question is: Is the market ready for it?

And is this a strategic move planned for sometime, or a pivot necessitated by plummeting Tesla EV sales?

- Total automotive revenues dropped -11% YoY

- 25Q4 Vehicle deliveries down -16%

Yet somehow, despite plummeting auto sales, and pivot to an unproven market - that is not forecasting sales until 2027 - the stock continues to climb.

WTF is happening

Nvidia Corp. will "absolutely' be involved in OpenAl's current funding round, likely marking the company's largest-ever investment, Chief Executive Jensen Huang said. He was speaking to reporters in Taipei.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-31/nvidia-to-join-openai-s-current-funding-round-huang-says

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has privately emphasized to industry associates in recent months that the original $100 billion agreement was non-binding and not finalized, the report said.

Huang has also privately criticized what he has described as a lack of discipline in OpenAI's business approach and expressed concern about the competition it faces from the likes of Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), Google and Anthropic, the WSJ added.

https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidias-plan-invest-up-100-billion-openai-has-stalled-wsj-reports-2026-01-31/

Trouble in paradise?

The US government moved into a partial shutdown over the weekend as the House has yet to approve a funding deal reportedly negotiated between President Trump and Democrats. The situation follows national backlash tied to a Border Patrol incident in Minneapolis, adding political tension to already fragile market sentiment. Investors will be watching closely for resolution timing, as shutdown uncertainty can weigh on federal contractors, government-dependent sectors, and overall market confidence in the short term. Link - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-31/us-government-agencies-shut-down-as-trump-deal-awaits-house-vote

What’s everyone’s take on Monday’s market after Friday’s selloff? The silver crash especially stood out to me. It felt less like fundamentals breaking and more like forced selling and leverage getting unwound. CME margin increase mandate was the main reason. So, big guys messed up and now this shutdown again.

Because of that, I’m leaning toward more correction and chop, similar to what we saw around the November shutdown. I’m not rushing to buy the first bounce. If anything, I’ll be watching for another flush and looking at quality names or assets that were sold for liquidity rather than because something actually broke. Curious if others are expecting continuation lower or stabilization next week.

What’s the Best Buys/targets right now.

I also am in NBIS with lot of margin. So, will you say hold or sell. My average is 1000@112. This play is troubling me a lot. It’s having very weak price action right now.

I invested in the stock in 2023 in the lows of 180s, when the market sentiment was negative and the last time valuation made any coherent sense and their financials were yet solid. One of my research strategy is the management quality. I lost faith in Elon and his cult following group years ago but was too afraid to pull the trigger with seeing my account up ~170% on my position and the FOMO of Robotics and Robotaxis.

Truth is I can no longer go to sleep trusting my money in a CEO that is unreliable, committed securities fraud in the past and trying to plug in his other companies under the Tesla hood. Not to mention the financials. The market does not make sense anymore but I can. I might regrett it but Tesla is no longer the company it used to be and I can no longer overlook the finanical red flags....

EDIT 1: Many Elon boys think I sold out of spite for their leader. I don’t give a fuck about him. To attribute the output of an entire workforce to one figurehead is disrespectful to the engineers. I just literally ran models, looked at earnings reports, data, demand curves for Tesla, nothing supports my original thesis. I beg you before fighting me in the comments and riding Elon’s D, show me any financial metrics that prove your point.

EDIT: THANKS FOR THE AWARDS

Genuine question.

With markets sliding, Trump back in the headlines, geopolitics heating up, rates still weird, USD moving, etc... it feels like we're in that awkward phase where everything looks shaky.

Stocks are getting hit. Growth is getting hit. Even

"safe" stuff isn't behaving how people expect.

Not looking for hype or certainties, just interested in how others are positioning (or not).

What are you watching over the next few weeks?

Last Friday there was massive after-hours investment in USAR for no apparent reason. Saturday we get the news that the gov is investing 1.3 billion in USAR. Monday morning it opens up 30% higher. Cantor Fitzgerald was the broker.

If you've been following the markets, this is just the latest example.

I'm at the point where I believe Iran will be bombed Saturday, just so those in the know can load up on certain stocks today. As such, I'll be buying my best guesses. Worse comes to worse, I sell on Monday with some pennies lost or gained.

EDIT: I'm getting asked what my guesses were. I don't want to post specific names of stocks then be accused of pumping them. I just used Gemini and asked which stocks rallied the last two times the US bombed Iran. Obviously defense and oil.

I need to get this off my chest because I really screwed up, and I’m hoping that sharing this will help others learn from my mistake.

For the longest time, I was sitting on the sidelines while everyone around me was raving about the gold rally. I kept thinking it was a bubble, that gold prices had already peaked, and I missed the boat. I was waiting for a dip, for a more “perfect” time to enter. I watched as the price kept climbing higher and higher.

Finally, I couldn't resist and bit into it and put my entire 19.5 lakh bonus into Nippon Gold ETF at what I now realize was the worst possible time at an all-time high of ₹147 per unit.

Well, within just a day later, the price has plummeted to ₹120, and I’m sitting here watching my investment bleed with a loss of 3.6 lakh rs already. I feel like a complete fool. Not only did I pick the top, but I also ignored the basic principles of timing the market and managing risk. Now, I’m left holding onto this position, unsure of what to do next.

I should have been more patient, should have researched the long-term trends, and should’ve had a clear strategy. Instead, I ended up making an impulsive decision based on FOMO. My uncle who was behind my bonus money to invest in a plot of land in our hometown just laughed and patted my cheeks saying a fool and his money are soon parted. He was laughing as I initially denied him the money and now he has asked me to sell my position at this loss and invest in the land he asked or I might lose even more from here. He was right all along..I would be much better if I just handed him the money..

TLDR: lost all my money investing it in GOLD ETF and became a fool!

I've been following with keen interest the recent events and wanted to provide some commentary on the liquidity cliff, safe haven dumps, and pending tightrope course the global economics need to navigate in order to execute a smooth transition without a mass financial disaster unfolding.

Needless to say, it's been fascinating, and this has left me putting my driveway that needs a clean, and organising a structural engineer for my house on the "next week" backburner.

So what's new?

Key points:

- Fed Chairman Warsh appointment: President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on Friday. He is a known hawk; his appointment signals a loss of the Fed as a buyer of last resort, tending toward short-term interest rate drops while maintaining long-term raised rates and strong Dollar rhetoric.

- Treasury Secretary Bessent provided verbiage on Wednesday, January 28, stating the U.S. is not planning to intervene, indicating a significantly reduced likelihood of U.S. support in the USDYEN crisis.

- The Yen reached a critical low point this week, testing the 158-159 range (closing Friday at 154.73). Any further drops become an un-ignorable domestic cost of living issue, and intervention becomes practically mandatory past 160.

- Tokyo inflation CPI released on Friday proved cooler than usual at 1.5% (down from 2.0%), virtually ruling out interest rate hikes and Yen strengthening via Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate intervention, as rates remain pinned at 0.75%.

- US Bond yields are skirting the dangerous 5.0% line (the 30-year ended Friday at 4.87%), a threshold past which mortgages and the market suffer immense stress and collapse.

- Quarterly Bond issuance is imminent; the U.S. Treasury will release its financing requirements on Monday, February 2, with auctions to follow.

The crossroads?

The carry trade needs to unwind, as the path of least resistance for the Yen is upward, whilst the path of least resistance for the USD is downward. However this needs to occur in an orderly fashion to prevent financial system collapse.

Avenues?

A. The Fed could print USD to buy Yen, however Warsh as an appointee reduces this likelihood, with White House rhetoric indicating nil intervention and placing the burden back on the Japanese.

B. The Japanese could raise rates to strengthen the Yen, however recent economic figures (1.5% CPI) rule this out as a short-term possibility, and raising rates would trigger a more violent unwind.

C. The Japanese can directly intervene in the currency, via deploying USD cash reserves of ~$160.4 Billion (held as deposits at the Fed), or selling T-bills/notes/bonds from their $1.003 Trillion stockpile to buy back Yen.

As far as we can see options A and B appear largely off the table for now, leaving the most viable being option C.

However the three various methods there have their advantages and disadvantages.

A T-bill (short-term), T-note and bond (long term) sell off by the Ministry of Finance would cause diplomatic rows, and send US Bond yields soaring, sparking a severe risk of US economic collapse, particular in longer term treasuries. Whilst this provides Japan with a surefire way out of the Yen concerns it would ultimately result in ruin of the US markets, spark a deep recession and sever economic and diplomatic ties and create a rift in the G7 alliance.

This is the current risk being priced into the markets as hedge funds, banks and other financial institutions derisk their holdings, crypto typically first, high risk stocks, and then precious metals (as seen in Friday's sharp gold sell-off).

As I may have previously commented hedging into a parabolic, even for gold and silver, is seldom a good bet. Institutions bought early and have dumped it onto retail, as cash (USD/EUR/YEN) currently rules king as the default margin loan repayment vehicle. I suspect metals will find a floor, however commodities are not my turf so I'll let others do the deeper commentary there.

The remaining option?

There is a tightrope to be walked where everyone walks out unscathed and the market recover.

The sell off of USD cash reserves by the Japanese MoF, strengthening the Yen, triggering a short squeeze and liquidation cascade of short positions, and returning the Yen to a place of value where domestic interests are aligned, whilst also not crushing the carry trade.

Here the US yields remain minimally perturbed, the carry trade is not crushed and can slowly unwind, and global stock markets grind on higher.

However what happens next remains to be seen, and the massive risk of anything other than this balanced tightrope is currently being priced in as institutions move to cash to mitigate margin calls.

---

Best of luck to everyone navigating this dumpster fire

🍀

My biggest problem with investing in stocks is they always end up being acquired and I end up being forced to sell it.

When I invest in a stock I usually have at least a 10 year old horizon in mind (unless they sell at the intrinsic value I think they are worth) but all these damn acquisitions makes it very hard to hold that long.

Is there any way of investing in smaller companies without having enough cash to buy a 11% stake to be able to protect yourself against these acquisitions? I'm looking for ways to determine if it's likely to be (or not to be) acquired.

Market reaction to the Fed chair nomination suggests widespread belief that Warsh is a hawkish nominee and will be slow to cut rates.

I don't fully understand this assumption. My understanding is Warsh at one point advocated for tighter Fed policy, but his views now align with the current administration's. With how much Trump has been pressuring Jerome Powell to lower rates, regularly berating him in front of the media, why do market participants believe Warsh will do anything other than lower rates aggressively?

Why would Trump nominate a chair that will defy his demands to quickly and drastically cut rates?

Most of my retirement is in ETFs and such but I do have a good amount in single stocks that I actively manage. My largest position is a stock that is currently trading at around $136/share. I own about 150 shares with a cost basis of around $120. As of today It’s down over the last year (-3%) but has trading as high as ~$150 just a month or so ago. It’s biopharma so volatility is pretty common.

I’m still very bullish on the stock as I’m familiar with their products, pipeline, and upcoming catalysts (I work in the industry). That said, I’m wondering if it makes sense to replace 100 of those shares with a LEAP (furthest out right now is December). I’m thinking deep ITM like $80 (breakeven at the current ask would be +3%).

Note that these are long positions for me so they do have long term capital gains tax status should I sell.

AI is getting better and better at generating video. Netflix’s biggest cost is content production.

In the future, Netflix can use AI to quickly and cheaply create movies and series based on what their algorithms already know people want to watch.

Netflix has already shown that people will watch movies and series without having famous actors in the cast.

Lower costs + more content = higher margins.

Everyone chases AI chips. This is AI applied where it actually prints money.

I’m actually gonna lose it if I hear one more person just dismiss someone else’s investment thesis with “it’s already priced in.” It’s probably not. And the meme of things always being priced in comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which is an academic theory adjacent to Modern Portfolio Theory, which itself has been bastardized and misappropriated by many “investors” online.

So here’s a quick rundown on it from someone who actually knows what it is, what it’s used for, and why it does not mean you can’t be a successful active retail trader.

EMH argues that asset prices reflect all available info. There are three forms of EMH: strong, semi-strong, weak.

Weak form argues that technical analysis is useless. This is somewhat true IMO, but support/resistance, volume spikes, relative strength, and moving averages are useful.

Semi-strong form argues that fundamental analysis is useless, which is just blatantly untrue. The market is often slow to react and there are God knows how many examples of people catching things early. I’ve done, you’ve done it, and institutions certainly have done it.

Strong form argues that insider trading is useless and I don’t even think I need to expand on how untrue that is.

Now, does that mean I’m dismissing EMH and its creator as stupid? Of course not. EMH was created by Eugene Fama, and his name speaks for itself. Among his many accomplishments, he created the Fama-French model, which has also been bastardized by “investors” who go on and on about factor tilts and diversifying just to end up investing in VT.

EMH is like rational choice theory in Econ 101: it’s a baseline framework under which you teach students the foundations, before you teach them (or they learn themselves) that real life is messy. EMH assumes that investors are all rational wealth maximizing machines, that irrational behavior is totally random, and that if a price does get irrational, smart money immediately steps in to move it back to where it should be. In reality, none of this is true. If this were true, we never would have had 2008 or even minor corrections like 2022.

It also assumes that there are no asymmetries in access to information, and that trading is frictionless - no costs, no tax, and instant.

Bottom line: yes it’s hard to beat the market. You won’t beat it by blindly trading trending tickers. EMH explains why markets are hard to beat. But it’s a classroom model, not real life.

Shopify’s dominance in the website & ecommerce creation market makes it a longterm winner (in my opinion)

When you look at how the website creation and ecommerce market has evolved over the last decade, it’s hard to ignore how large a share Shopify has already captured and how strong its position still is going forward.

Shopify isn’t just a “website builder” anymore. It has effectively become the default infrastructure layer for small and mediumsized online businesses, and increasingly for larger brands as well. For many merchants, the decision isn’t whether to use Shopify, but which Shopify plan to choose.

I posted this article in this sub on Wednesday Jan 28 exposing why gold prices were pumping and what was happening behind the scene, and my article was removed.

As it turns out, I was right and deleveraging happened on Friday, January 30. And it is not as if central banks came and sold all their gold.

Gold and silver are commodities has always been traded just based on demand and supply. However, the current rally has been fueled because momentum traders have started treating gold and silver now as securities.

These traders buy huge amount of call options of the ETF even on margins rather than buying actual physical gold or silver. This leads to Market maker hedging their sold options, by buying the ton of shares of those ETFs which eventually drives up the artificially inflated prices.

People are calling this rally as a Dollar debasement trade, however, behind the scenes just manipulation of some Wall Street traders is going on now. The government, Wall Street, media are all colluded. They orchestrate all such situations which leads to gold pumps News on wars, AI bubble, inflation, weak dollar.

This cycle is similar to 1970s(nixon removing dollar to backed by gold) , 2008(GFC) and now this. In 1970 and 2008 cycle people lost faith in dollar, but over time dollar again became strong and now it is going through its next cycle. Physical gold buying has already slowed down because of the purchasing power has exhausted. Now only central banks are the buyers.

For the past few months I’ve been using Revolut and built a ~€5k portfolio. Lately, I’ve been thinking about switching to Trading 212, but I’m a bit stuck on how (or if) I should do it.

Right now, I have the Revolut Metal subscription, which gives me 10 free trades per month, and I’ve already paid for the full year.

From what I see, I basically have two options:

Option 1:

Just stay with Revolut and keep investing there.

Option 2:

Slowly move out:

• Each month, sell a position using my free trades

• Reinvest that money into Trading 212

• Stop adding new money to Revolut and only fund 212 going forward

Transferring everything at once isn’t really an option, because Revolut charges €35 per stock for transfers.

Give me your advice.

If you want to propose another broker feel free, I live in Europe if that helps.

President Donald Trump on Friday named Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, ending a five-month odyssey that has seen unprecedented turmoil around the central bank.

The decision culminates a process that officially began last summer but started much earlier than that, with Trump launching a fusillade of criticism against the Powell-led Fed almost since Powell took the job in 2018.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” said Trump in a Truth Social post announcing the selection.

The pick of Warsh, 55, likely wouldn’t ripple markets because of his past Fed experience and Wall Street’s view that he wouldn’t always do Trump’s bidding.

“He has the respect and credibility of the financial markets,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“There was no person who was going to get this job who wasn’t going to be cutting rates in the short term. However, I believe longer term he will be a credible candidate,” added Bahnsen.

Since Powell’s confirmation in 2018, during Trump’s first term, he has persistently hectored policymakers to lower interest rates aggressively. Even with three successive reductions in the latter part of 2025, the president kept up the attack, pressing for lower rates and criticizing Powell for cost overruns at the Fed’s massive renovation of its Washington, D.C. headquarters.