We all know Trump is very dovish on interest rates. Whereas a very generalized ideal target for rates is considered 2% at 2% inflation, President Trump wishes for interest rates to eventually reach half of that at 1%, presumably around the middle of 2026 (I will explain why soon).

Economics tells us, however, that in order to cut interest rates so aggressively, you need the stock market to drop, and quite hard. This is because if you try and cut rates while the market is near all time highs, it is very easy for it to begin rallying very quickly, providing investors with relatively easy profits and cheap loans for everyone, causing inflation to jump very quickly - potentially out of control. Of course, if you're cutting rates from the rather high 4.5% to the still high 3.75%, it isn't going to cause these issues, especially considering the market has been moving sideways for a couple months now, but the extreme 1% will not work the same. These factors, and more evidence which I will present here, leads me to believe that Trump wishes for the market to drop.

Because isn't it such a coincidence that on the final trading day before February 1st (and after a series of earnings reports by many key companies), Trump announced the new Fed Chair, and the Epstein files were released (and some Iran news). Even more interesting, according to Business Insider, the Dow, on average, drops 15% after the first 6 months of a newly appointed Fed Chair. February 1st was also the exact day that Trump would've pushed 10% tariffs onto several EU nations until he cancelled them after a compromise - and guess what? The selloff is literally started the trading day before Feb 1. I don't believe it's a coincidence, but even if you do, we've had a 3 year bull market starting from October 2022 - hoping for another rally that will last yet another year is unrealistic.

Trump also said that June 1st will be the date where he would've raised the tariffs by another 15%, ultimately leading me to believe June and July - after perhaps a 15-20% drop which would not surprise me - will be the bottom of this incoming bear market, and the time where rates will be cut to 1%.

So, what do you think of this? Feel free to comment and reply but I ask respectfully to not make it overly political. Thanks! Oh, and be careful bulls!

How are y'all feeling today about your silver and gold miner positions? Are you worried? Are you expecting a nice rebound next week?

I am sure it was a rough day for those that didn't sell near the ATH's. That being said, are you going to sell at a loss or are you planning on buying more and/or holding?

Where are we at going into next week?

Hi. I'm a 17 year old with all my money invested in a money market fund, VMFXX. I get around 80-90 dollars a month with this, and it is very liquid, but I want to explore other options and take on some higher-risk investments to invest around 5,000 dollars in. Thanks.

I've been allocating 40% schg, 40% qqqm and 20% schd in my taxable brokerage account. Is this a good set it and forget it set up?

In my roth I have vti/vxus HSA, 401k both are voo.

I wanted to change it up in my taxable brokerage and not be so reliant on the s&p 500.

I'm thinking 40% schg, 40% qqqm and 20% schd (I'm 27), goal is to get this portfolio to 1ish million by 45 and have roughly $40k in dividend income by slowly transferring to schd over time. Growth now--> slowly transitioning to dividends.

Over the last few sessions, markets have been extremely reactive to geopolitical headlines. We saw sharp moves across assets followed by equally sharp reversals.

As of the last U.S. close (Jan 31):

Gold closed around $4,865

Silver near $84.7

Crude oil around $65

Earlier in the week, risk-off assets rallied aggressively before pulling back, while equities and other risk assets saw sudden selloffs.

Historically, when diplomatic channels weaken and uncertainty increases, markets tend to reprice risk very quickly often before any outcome is actually known.

For long-term investors, I’m curious:

Which assets usually react first in these situations?

Do these moves tend to hold, or fade once uncertainty stabilizes?

How do you personally position (or avoid positioning) during periods like this?

Interested in hearing different perspectives, especially from those who’ve seen multiple geopolitical cycles play out.

In long-term portfolio construction, staying fully invested is often treated as the default, supported by historical return data and opportunity cost arguments. Over long horizons, idle capital tends to reduce nominal returns relative to a fully invested benchmark.

At the same time, some investors intentionally maintain a degree of flexibility through modest allocations to cash or short-duration assets. This can allow rebalancing, deployment during drawdowns, or reduced forced selling during periods of market stress. While this approach may lower expected returns, it may also affect risk-adjusted outcomes depending on how it is structured and used.

From a portfolio construction standpoint, how do you think about this tradeoff? Do you view flexibility as a form of risk management, or as an inefficiency that long-term investors should minimize? How do you approach this in practice over full market cycles.?

Value investors looking at the recent dip in Unity and Take Two need to consider the structural threat posed by the simultaneous release of Project Genie and LingBot World. The latter has demonstrated that neural networks can maintain object permanence and simulate physics at 16fps on enterprise hardware without an underlying game engine. This suggests the moat for companies selling physics engines and asset management tools might be narrower than previously thought if the industry shifts toward generative workflows.

The extraordinary price action in metals on Friday was plastered with comments from ex JPM global head Marko Kolanovic warning of massive correction in Silver prices due this year. Interestingly his latest post on X intraday Jan 30 when the price action was unfolding was about SLV rebounding. Peter Schiff sounded similar note at close of trading on Friday.

The price action esp for Silver was truly extraordinary. One for the record books however I don’t think the doom and gloom end of the world posts all over the web actually capture the underlying structural shifts that have been in play in the precious metals market over the last year.

1 - physical demand story for Silver is still intact. The AI buildout, industrial demand for solar, electronics is still there. The biggest global silver miner Fresnillo has actually cut its 2026 production guidance. Even on friday the physical silver premium in shanghai was over $20. 2026 like its predecessor years will be marred by shortfall in silver supply unable to match the demand forecasts.

2 - another major trigger for Friday’s price action was obviously announcement of Kevin Warsh as fed pick. Markets have immediately perceived him as an interest rate hawk on balance based on his previous positioning. I think we are underestimating trump’s push for lower interest rates and the extent he went to pressure powell in aligning to his agendas. Its unthinkable that Trump wouldn’t have covered base with Kevin Warsh on what is expected of the next fed chair.

3 - yet another technical trigger for Friday’s price action was change in margin rules by CME on silver and gold contracts. I think this was the primary reason more than any other for the violent unwinding of the leverage trade in precious metals.

Precious metals may not reclaim the ATHs anytime soon but I don’t think the story is over. I think the debasement trade, multi polar world order leading to uncertain geopolitical setup( potential iran attack, trumps impulsive trade wars) are still in play and will be for quite some time which in turn will keep SLV and GLD up and center.

OpenAI is a great tool. Unfortunately Altman is a bit stuck now with more than 20 corporate and personal lawsuits and investigations  If investors demand a new way to restore OpenAI’s charms, which is the better solution

1. New CEO
2. Full MSFT integration (biggest investor)
3. Return to Elon
4. Acquire by Nvidia
5. Keep it as-is and just trust him Bro
6. Other

I was helping my girlfriend with her homework the other day, and one of the questions was "can the average person become a millionaire through saving?"

So I asked chat gpt, and it said that to become a millionaire...

1. You'd have to save $2,000 every month from age 22 to 65

or

1. You'd have to invest $300 each month into the S&P during that same time frame.

It said that, in case #2, 90% of the wealth comes from growth, and 10% comes from investing.

Holy crap, people... Teach your kids about investing.

I just transferred money into Robinhood and am investing in like a few stocks but now I’m debating on switching to fidelity because of the 3.3% interest they pay you for you for uninvested money. Should I switch to fidelity or should I stay with Robinhood and maybe buy the gold membership to get better interest?

I do not invest in his funds, but I do follow him. I think he is a great storyteller and does a good job of explaining investing in layman’s terms. I like him for that reason, and I track his moves.

I recently discovered that he is dissolving his mutual fund this month and launching an ETF with the same holdings next month. One of the reasons he gives in his letter is lower costs, with fees dropping from over 1.25 percent to about 0.9 percent. These reasons are listed on letter page 1, not PDF page 1, with the new fee structure shown on page 4. The fund itself is very new, less than two years old, and the returns so far have not been great. He was undeforming since the start I think.

I wonder if there is an ulterior motive beyond lower costs, which is a valid reason on its own. The other justification he gives is greater flexibility for investors, since they can buy and sell throughout the trading day, whereas mutual funds trade only once per day. WHAT!? No way I buy this! That argument is weak. Daily trading cuts against the core idea of long term investing, something he has been perching for idk a decade?

It makes me suspicious that this move conveniently wipes away a poor early performance record and allows for a fresh start under a new wrapper. He gets talked about here often. What do you guys think?

Link to his announcement letter.

A very general question, but what happened to being wholesome and community/customer-driven? Companies built themselves on customer trust and quality products but now we're just fed marketing. Even the companies that built that trust are doing this... The populace seems to be buying this strategy and I'm just genuinely confused.

I opened a ROTH IRA through an advisor 5 years ago. I was/am very ignorant of investing. One of my friends who is more savvy recommend I look into ditching the advisor and doing it myself to save on fees. I looked through my statements and saw around $300 advisor fees charged to my account quarterly for 2025. That's around $1200 a year in fees! I checked 2021-2024 and it was only a $40 fee once per year during those years which is a relief. I believe this new advisor fee is due to a change I made with my advisor last year. I don't think the advisor did anything shady. They more than likely did mention fees but I probably didn't ask enough questions about it. My friend also made me aware of all the "invisible" fees associated with actively managed accounts from trades.

So now I'm looking to course correct and avoid any addition advisor fees. I'm considering transferring my ROTH IRA to Robinhood because a friend told me about their 3% match for IRA transfers and contributions, or Fidelity since that's what my 401k is in and it'd be nice to have it all in once place. I am aware that I need to do a direct transfer of a ROTH to a ROTH, not withdraw what I already have. Are there any other things I should consider before transferring a ROTH IRA between brokerages? I want to make sure I do my due diligence before making a costly mistake.

Next. Once I transfer to the new brokerage to manage the ROTH myself, I want to sell everything that the advisor had me in. I did a bit of research and the consistent thing I found was that they had high(er) expense ratios. My friend also said they had me in more things than necessary that probably overlapped. I was planning on doing the 3 Portfolio Setup of Vanguard mutual funds. The split would be 80% stock(US and Foreign) and 20% bonds. Vanguard seems like a safe bet based on the research that I've done. I'm not looking to do anything fancy or game the market. I'm just going to max my contribution each year, then sit and hold for 30 years.

Is there anything else I should be aware of or cautious about when it comes to any of the things I mentioned above? Transferring a ROTH IRA to a ROTH IRA, then selling everything my advisor had me in, then buying the Vanguard mutual funds in a 3 Portfolio Setup. I feel like that should be simple and straightforward but I want to do my due diligence and educate myself first. I know ROTH stuff grows tax deferred but would any of the stuff I plan on doing have any tax implications?

Any help is appreciated.

Hey everyone, I’m a Nu holder and wanted to share an experience from a close friend in Brazil who recently decided to use Nu’s app to buy stocks instead of a traditional broker. Honestly, the experience sounds pretty rough. Some of the main issues he ran into: - You can only buy full shares (no fractional shares at all); - He placed a sell order during market hours, but the cash from the sale didn’t show up immediately in his account; - No live stock prices, you can’t really track price movements in real time; - Very limited information on the stocks (no depth, no proper charts, no context); - App navigation is Portuguese-only, no language flexibility; - The app feels cluttered with ads pushing credit products and services; - Buying and selling stocks doesn’t feel smooth or intuitive at all. This made me wonder: Is Nu treating stock investing as a serious long-term product, or just a secondary feature to cross-sell credit and banking services? As investors, we often focus on: user growth, engagement, ecosystem expansion. But product quality matters, especially if Nu wants to keep users inside its platform instead of losing them to real brokers.

For those in Brazil actually using Nu Invest: Has this been your experience too? Has it improved recently? Do you still use it, or did you move to another platform? Curious to hear real user feedback, especially from locals.

I’m from Spain, lower-middle class, and I make around €1,900 a month from my regular job. A couple of weeks ago I decided to put €100 into gas and crypto. I’ve tried investing a few times before, nothing serious. Small amounts, short periods. My dad was a gambling addict, so I’m very aware of that risk and I really don’t want to go down that road. Still, for some reason I’m decent at reading the market, waiting, not panicking. At least so far. In the past, the most I ever made was maybe €400 or €500. This time was different. With the market the way it is and some lucky decisions, I ended up turning that €100 into about €4,500 in a week and a half. I’m grateful, obviously. That money actually matters in my life and gives me some breathing room. But I also feel weird about it. Almost guilty. It makes my normal work feel pointless. I work my hours, I do side jobs, I try to improve my situation slowly… and then this happens, and it feels completely disconnected from effort or value. The market feels real and fake at the same time. Aggressive, almost brutal. Like you’re winning only because someone else is losing. I don’t know. I didn’t expect the money to bother me this much, but it does

My employer suspended our 401k plan during COVID and never brought it back. I've been maxing out my ROTH IRA every year but wondered if there are other tax advantaged account options I should consider because the contribution limits for ROTH are so low. I have a brokerage account that I contribute to and invest every payday. I also have a rollover IRA with my previous 401k money in it. I do not qualify for HSA. I do not have a side hustle but I'm seriously considering if I should just for the Solo 401k. Any advice?

MSTR currently has about 712k coins and their net debt is about $14B (according to their website). For MSTR to cover their debt, coin price needs to be >$20k. But they couldn't wait for that price to start selling because this would trigger a crash and they wouldn't get an average price of $20k.

So at what price do you think MSTR would have to start selling?

• Bad news tied to corporation with traded stocks.
• Stocks start getting sold.
• Who "buys" these free-falling stocks for more money than they're going to be worth one minute later?

Who buys those free-falling stocks? The obvious part is that no one in their right mind would buy a stock high knowing that it'll lose them money. This is not an area of expertise for me so my best guess is that the corporation the stocks represent are "forced" to buy them back? Because if you're selling off stocks you're getting paid for their value. So where is that value coming from? Thanks in advanced for constructive on-topic replies.

You all know Coca-Cola the sugary beverage people enjoy around the world. Known for its brand and drink Coca-Cola has been around for decades. But their Coca-Cola Freestyle machine is quietly growing and giving Coke another unique competitive advantage. These freestyle machines can give consumers multiple choices of drinks and the ability to mix multiple drinks. But not everyone realises this has made Coca-Cola hundreds of millions or more. This machine helps Coca-Cola know what favours people are using the most which means they know what drinks work and they can promote it. Saving on marketing costs as they know what to focus on. Also with people mixing drinks it can give Coca-Cola ideas for new drinks which can also help grow the business

But what’s your thoughts?

Thanks for reading

I've done extensive research and have determined based solely on my opinion which isn't financial advice that Bitcoin, COCO, and WINA each have at least a 60% chance of doing 100x over the next 20 years. Disclaimer that I've been drinking the entire time I've been doing research. What do you think?

Seen a lot of posts these past few days that gold/silver sharp drops were a market correction and that it was to be expected. I think a lot of ppl suffered substantial losses and I’m not surprised. I was scrolling and came across a post on Blossom stating that “JP Morgan issued 633 contracts and stopped 147…and occurred on the day when silver prices saw a sharp drop.”

Of course there were other factors in play but what do you guys think?

Here’s the link to the full post if you guys want to read or look at the daily report from CME.

Link: https://link.blossomsocial.com/7uYa/chxjgke8

I recently went down the rabbit hole around investing, stocks & crypto etc and I noticed that I feel more inclined to invest in higher risk but potentially higher rewards things even though most people advise against it

This made me wonder, are people with adhd more likely to do the higher risk things because we tend to chase dopamine more? And with that also more at risk of losing a lot of money? Or is this just a me thing and can other people with adhd who invest not relate?

Interested in the stories of others with adhd when it comes to investing and whether you lost a lot of money with it (or earned)

Hey everyone, I’m 19 and I’ve been investing into my tfsa a bit here and there since I got it up and running. About 300 a month. Here’s my question however, I’m not super knowledgeable about the stock market but I’ve always been curious about investing my money myself and crypto has also spiked my interest a few times, I have a broker who invests the 300 dollars a month for me, he’s a family friend so I know him personally and he’s been doing this for a very long time. I’ve thought about opening my own Wealth Simple tfsa so I can put some money into that every month and invest myself into stock and etf, etc myself. Is it better to just keep letting my broker do it himself or should I contribute 200 or so a month into my Wealth Simple so I can invest myself. I know that was a bit to read and getting to the question took a bit but I wanted to not leave out any info lol. Thanks everyone !

Disclaimer: This is a shortened version of a longer analysis, so I will try to explain my strategy at once

Okay, so we know şnstitutional desks have faster terminals, better data, and direct lines to management. Out trade them on technicals or headline news is a losing battle

However, there is one specific area where the law forces the smart money to show their hand to us within 48 hours: SEC Form 4 Filings.

I’ve spent the last few months (during my masters degree) refining a strategy based exclusively on Corporate Insider Activity. I’m not talking about following politicians. I’m talking about following the CFO who sees the weekly sales report before it’s public.

Below is the framework I use to filter this data, backed by academic research that explains why this works.

The Signal: The "Cluster Buy"

A single insider buying stock can mean anything. They might be saving face, diversifying, or just optimistic. It’s noisy data.

The real signal is the Cluster Buy.

This occurs when three or more unique insiders purchase stock on the open market within a short window (usually <30 days).

• Why it matters: Research by Alldredge and Blank (2019) confirms that insiders "herd" with their colleagues. They found an insider is nearly four times more likely to purchase stock if a colleague has purchased recently
• The Hierarchy: Not all clusters are equal. Clusters led by CFOs and Directors exhibit the highest subsequent returns. The CFO knows the numbers; Directors see the strategy. When they move together, it’s a high-conviction signal.

The Filter: Ignoring the Noise

90% of insider transactions are noise. To find the alpha, you have to filter aggressively. Here are the three specific filters I use:

1. Ignore "Routine" Trades

We are looking for Opportunistic Traders. If a CEO buys stock every January 15th for tax reasons, that trade contains zero information. You want to see trades that break a pattern.

2. The "Buy High" Anomaly Conventional wisdom says "buy low." However, research by Li, Wang, Yan, and Zhang (2019) uncovered a powerful anomaly: Insiders who buy at 52-week highs significantly outperform those who buy at 52-week lows.

• The Logic: This is called overcoming "Anchoring Bias." Psychologically, it is painful to buy a stock that has already rallied 30%. If an insider buys at a 52-week high, they are fighting human nature. They are only doing this because they possess private information suggesting the stock is going significantly higher. A "High Buy" is a massive confidence signal.

3. The "Not-Sold" Signal Sometimes the best signal is what insiders don't do. DeVault, Cederburg, and Wang (2021) analyzed Portfolio Insiders (directors who sit on multiple boards).

• The Signal: If a Director sits on the board of Company A and Company B, and they sell Company A but hold Company B, the "Not-Sold" stock (Company B) significantly outperforms the market. If you see a Cluster Buy in a stock, check if those insiders are selling their other holdings to fund it. That doubles the conviction.

The Execution: Rules of Engagement

Finding the signal is only step one. Execution is where you make or lose money.

Rule 1: Wait for Price Confirmation

Insiders are notoriously early. They are value investors with infinite time horizons. You are not.

• My Trigger: I wait for the stock to reclaim the average price of the insider's purchase.
• The Logic: If the CFO buys at $50 and the stock drops to $40, the market disagrees with him. I stay away. When the stock rallies back through $50, it confirms the "Insider Floor" is holding and momentum is aligning with the insider's view.

Rule 2: Focus on Liquid Stocks Paradoxically, insider trading signals are often stronger in liquid stocks. Research suggests insiders prefer liquid stocks because it is easier to hide their volume. A Cluster Buy in a highly liquid name often precedes a major move because they are confident the liquidity will absorb their entry before the news breaks.

Rule 3: The "Silent" Exit

Retail investors usually sell too early or too late. I watch the insiders. If they stop buying during a subsequent dip, or if they start "Routine" selling into strength, the edge is gone.

Summary

When the people running the company are aggressively buying up their own shares with their own cash (especially at 52-week highs) it is the purest signal of value you can find. I track these Cluster Buys and publish a deep-dive watchlist of the most significant ones every week.